June cotton import data sends a clear signal: cost pressures are reshaping Chinese textile mills' sourcing landscape. While import volume surged 3 times year-on-year, it fell 2.7% month-on-month. More importantly, the import mix shifted dramatically—Brazilian cotton's share dropped 18 percentage points in a single month, while Australian cotton rapidly filled the gap.
Rising Import Prices and Structural Divergence
According to customs data, the average import price in June reached $1,804/ton, up 6.2% month-on-month. US cotton saw the largest increase, rising 9.2% to $2,026/ton; Brazilian cotton followed with a 3.3% rise to $1,669/ton. Only Australian cotton bucked the trend, edging down 1.1% to $1,927/ton. This price divergence directly drove the reallocation of import sources.
Brazilian cotton imports totaled 44,100 tons, plummeting 32.2% month-on-month, with its share falling from 58% in May to 40%. Australian cotton imports surged to 30,600 tons, up 22 times month-on-month, lifting its share from around 14% to 28%. US cotton imports stood at 17,900 tons, down 28.1% month-on-month, accounting for 16%. For buyers, with the domestic-foreign price spread still at 3,000 yuan/ton, cost-effectiveness has become the primary criterion for sourcing.
Trade Mode Shifts and Downstream Orders
Changes in import trade modes are equally telling. General trade imports reached 21,000 tons, up 1.4% month-on-month, with its share rising 12 percentage points to 19%. In contrast, the share of goods entering bonded supervision sites fell 12 percentage points to 33%. The rise in general trade suggests some textile mills are moving from destocking to direct purchasing, aligning with the start of overseas autumn/winter stocking orders.
In June, textile and apparel exports totaled $29.27 billion, up 14.3% month-on-month and 7.2% year-on-year. Garment exports alone grew 21% month-on-month, indicating strong restocking demand from overseas retailers for autumn/winter collections. The recovery in yarn and grey fabric orders also supported the year-on-year surge in cotton imports. However, domestic mills slowed purchasing during the traditional off-season, leading to a slight month-on-month decline in import volume.
New Variables in Global Supply
The USDA July report made significant adjustments to the 2026/27 global cotton balance: production was raised by 2.613 million tons, mainly from Brazil, the US, Turkey, and Central Asia. Ending stocks edged up, pushing the stocks-to-use ratio to 58.4%. Meanwhile, the 2025/26 ending stocks were lowered by 1.96 million tons, with the ratio falling to 63.1%. This mismatch between short-term tightness and long-term looseness is shaping market expectations.
Data from ABRAPA shows that in the first 11 months of the 2025/26 season, Brazil exported 3.219 million tons of cotton, up 18.9% year-on-year. June alone saw 217,000 tons exported, up 63.4%. While China remains the largest buyer, Bangladesh and Turkey are catching up. China's purchases account for 24% of Brazil's total exports, while Bangladesh and Turkey together account for over 30%.