June import data reveals a critical signal: amid the traditional textile off-season, Chinese buyers are rapidly adjusting their procurement strategy—Brazilian cotton's cost advantage is fading, while Australian cotton is quickly filling the gap with stable pricing and quality.
Import Volume and Structural Shift
Customs data shows that China imported 110,000 tons of cotton in June, a year-on-year surge of 3-fold but a month-on-month decline of 2.7%. This reflects two opposing forces: on one hand, the domestic-international price spread remained high at around 3,000 yuan/ton, with sliding-scale tariff quotas continuing to be utilized, supporting a massive year-on-year increase; on the other hand, mills entered the off-season, slowing procurement and causing a slight monthly dip. The extremely low base of 27,000 tons in June 2025 amplified the year-on-year growth.
First-half cumulative imports reached 935,000 tons, up 100% year-on-year; the first 10 months of the 2025/26 season totaled 1.415 million tons, up 52.6%. These figures indicate that China's cotton import demand has fully recovered from the mid-2025 trough and entered a structural growth trajectory.
The real story is the dramatic reshuffling of import sources. Brazilian cotton imports fell 32.2% month-on-month to 44,100 tons, with its share dropping 18 percentage points to 40%. Australian cotton imports surged 22-fold month-on-month to 30,600 tons, boosting its share from below 2% to 28%. US cotton imports fell 28.1% month-on-month to 17,900 tons, with a 16% share.
The core driver is price. Average import prices rose 6.2% month-on-month to $1,804/ton, led by US cotton (+9.2% to $2,026/ton). Brazilian cotton rose 3.3% to $1,669/ton, while Australian cotton prices edged down 1.1% to $1,927/ton. In China's price-sensitive market, Australian cotton's pricing strategy clearly resonated with buyers.
Trade Mode and Downstream Transmission
By trade mode, special customs supervision zone logistics remained the largest channel, with 43,000 tons in June, accounting for 39%, but down 4 percentage points month-on-month. General trade's share rose to 19%, up 12 percentage points, suggesting increased direct purchasing by end users. Bonded supervision zone trade fell 12 percentage points to 33%, reflecting reduced intermediate trader stockpiling.
This shift aligns with downstream demand recovery. The overseas autumn/winter apparel preparation cycle began in June, boosting yarn and grey fabric orders. Textile and apparel exports rose 14.3% month-on-month to $29.27 billion, with apparel exports up 21% month-on-month. The rebound in foreign orders provided a fundamental support for cotton import demand but did not fully offset weak domestic sales.
Global Supply Outlook Pressures Prices
The USDA July report raised global cotton production for 2026/27 by 2.613 million tons, driven by increases in Brazil, the US, Turkey, and Central Asia. Ending stocks were slightly raised, pushing the stocks-to-use ratio to 58.4%. This implies a looser global supply in the new season, pressuring forward cotton prices.
ABRAPA data shows that Brazil exported 3.219 million tons in the first 11 months of 2025/26, up 18.9% year-on-year, with June exports of 217,000 tons, up 63.4%. Bangladesh, Turkey, and Pakistan were the main destinations, accounting for 57% of June exports. While China remains Brazil's largest buyer, its cumulative purchases of 767,000 tons represent only 24% of Brazil's total exports.
This trend suggests Brazil is diversifying its export markets, reducing reliance on China. For Chinese buyers, this could mean narrower bargaining power, especially against a backdrop of global supply abundance.