On July 28, the textile commodity market exhibited a notable feature: price divergence. Acrylonitrile posted a daily gain of 1.61%, reaching 10,533 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year surge of 33.62%, making it the strongest performer of the day. Meanwhile, seven products including polyester staple fiber, raw silk, cotton, and cotton yarn declined, with polyester staple fiber falling 0.46% to lead the losses. The sector's average daily change was only 0.02%, indicating a lack of clear directional momentum, as different raw materials are operating along their own supply-demand dynamics.
Logic Behind Raw Material Price Divergence
Acrylonitrile's strength is no coincidence. Its 33.62% year-on-year gain reflects tight upstream feedstock supply and sustained robust demand from downstream ABS resin and acrylic fiber sectors. In the chemical fiber chain, acrylonitrile stands out due to its relatively acute supply-demand imbalance, with price movements driven more by its own fundamentals than by the broader textile market. In contrast, polyester staple fiber's 0.46% decline to 7,498 yuan/ton, despite a 13.51% year-on-year increase, indicates a recent weakening trend. Its downstream markets—nonwovens and filling materials—are experiencing slower demand growth, while high operating rates have led to rising inventory pressure.
The simultaneous decline of cotton and cotton yarn is also telling. Cotton fell 0.28% to 17,609 yuan/ton, while cotton yarn 21S and 32S dropped 0.14% and 0.20%, respectively. These data points suggest that the cotton textile chain is under synchronized pressure from both ends. Expectations of new cotton supply, low operating rates at downstream weaving mills, and the destocking rhythm in export orders are collectively weighing on cotton and yarn prices. Raw silk fell 0.35%, with a year-on-year decline of 9.98%—the only negative year-on-year figure on the list—indicating that the silkworm industry's terminal demand weakness persists.
Impact on Downstream Procurement and Production Decisions
Price divergence means that downstream companies face asymmetric cost structure changes. For producers of acrylic yarn and carbon fiber prepregs that rely heavily on acrylonitrile, rising input costs will directly compress profit margins. If acrylonitrile prices remain elevated, these companies may hesitate to accept new orders. For polyester staple fiber users, the price correction offers a relatively favorable procurement window, especially for nonwovens and low-end filling material producers who can moderately increase stockpiles.
Cotton textile companies face a more complex situation. While falling cotton and yarn prices reduce raw material costs, they also signal potential further declines in finished product prices. If order prices drop in tandem with raw materials, actual profit improvement is limited. More critically, during a price downtrend, downstream customers tend to delay orders in anticipation of lower prices, leading to slower inventory turnover and increased working capital pressure.
Practical Recommendations
For Buyers - Monitor acrylonitrile supply dynamics; if no new capacity comes online soon, consider signing quarterly contracts to lock in prices and avoid spot volatility. - During the polyester staple fiber price correction, increase procurement volumes appropriately, especially before the peak season for nonwovens demand. - For cotton yarn, adopt a phased ordering strategy to avoid locking in high-cost inventory, while closely monitoring post-harvest cotton price trends.
For Factories - Acrylonitrile downstream producers should optimize product mix, increasing the share of high-value-added products to absorb raw material cost pressures. - Polyester staple fiber mills should control operating rates to avoid excessive inventory buildup during price downturns, and strengthen order linkages with downstream customers to shorten the production-sales cycle. - Cotton textile mills must strictly control raw material inventory days, ideally within 30 days, and use futures tools for hedging to mitigate price fluctuation risks.
Overall, the July 28 price data reveals that the textile raw material market is entering a phase of intensified divergence and unclear direction. Companies need to move beyond a sector-wide perspective and adopt differentiated procurement and inventory strategies for specific products to navigate the volatility.