Acrylonitrile Leads Gains, Polyester Staple Fiber Drops: Supply-Demand Logic Behind Textile Raw Material Price Divergence

The commodity price monitoring data on July 28 reveals a clear sign: the textile raw material market is entering a 'fire and ice' situation. Acrylonitrile led gains with a 1.61% daily increase and a 33.62% year-on-year rise, while polyester staple fiber fell 0.46% and raw silk dropped nearly 10% year-on-year. This divergence is no accident, reflecting fundamental differences in supply and demand across different varieties.

Acrylonitrile: Cost and Demand Dual Drivers

Acrylonitrile's strength stems from two dimensions. Upstream, high international crude oil prices have raised costs for petrochemical raw materials like propylene, providing rigid support. Downstream, demand from carbon fiber and ABS resin is robust, especially driven by new energy vehicles and aerospace. Additionally, low operating rates and plant maintenance have tightened supply, amplifying price elasticity. The 33.62% year-on-year increase means significant cost pressure for downstream acrylic fiber and ABS resin producers, with limited room for negotiation in the short term.

Polyester Staple Fiber and Raw Silk: Weak Demand is the Core

In contrast, polyester staple fiber fell 0.46%, and raw silk dropped 9.98% year-on-year. Polyester staple fiber, mainly used in spinning, nonwovens, and fillings, is affected by weak apparel consumption and reduced export orders. The textile industry is in a low season, with weaving mills running at low capacity, purchasing only for immediate needs. Ample capacity and rising inventories have pressured prices. For raw silk, the international market faces substitution by other fibers and economic slowdowns in key consuming countries, leading to sustained weak demand.

Intermediate Products: Cost Transmission Blocked

PTA fell 0.06%, polyester DTY dropped 0.26%, while POY and FDY were flat. This data is noteworthy: PTA's slight decline and the inability of polyester filament yarn to rise indicate that upstream cost transmission to midstream and downstream is not smooth. Polyester filament yarn producers face a dilemma of high costs and low demand. Cotton yarn 21S and 32S fell 0.14% and 0.20% respectively, reflecting cautious buying by fabric mills and slower inventory digestion. If end demand does not recover, intermediate product prices face downside risks.

Price Divergence Reflects Structural Contradictions

The current price divergence in textile raw materials essentially reflects supply-demand imbalances across different chain segments. Acrylonitrile's rise represents upstream resource-based varieties benefiting from cost drivers and emerging demand; polyester staple fiber and raw silk's fall exposes the weakness of traditional textile end demand. This 'strong raw materials, weak finished goods' pattern demands higher management skills from buyers and producers: guarding against raw material cost volatility while avoiding finished goods inventory depreciation.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - For strong varieties like acrylonitrile and spandex, adopt a 'batch price-locking' strategy to avoid bulk purchases at high prices, and monitor crude oil trends. - For weak varieties like polyester staple fiber and raw silk, extend procurement cycles to negotiate better payment terms or discounts. - For intermediate products like cotton yarn and polyester filament, purchase on demand to minimize inventory, and focus on weaving mill operating rates.

For Foreign Trade Companies - For orders to Europe and the US, monitor RMB exchange rate fluctuations on raw material import costs and consider forward contracts to lock in profits. - For high-end carbon fiber products using acrylonitrile, seize the opportunity of higher overseas prices to boost exports. - For raw silk and silk product exporters, explore emerging markets in Southeast Asia and the Middle East to diversify risk.