Acrylonitrile Leads Gains, Polyester Staple Falls: July 28 Textile Raw Material Price Divergence Signals

The July 28 commodity price monitoring data reveals a textile raw material market that is calm on the surface but increasingly polarized beneath. Among the 17 monitored items, only 2 rose, 7 fell, and the rest were flat. The overall sector daily change was a mere 0.02%, but the strong rally in acrylonitrile and the persistent weakness in polyester staple are sending very different signals up and down the supply chain.

Market Divergence Intensifies

Acrylonitrile emerged as the strongest performer with a 1.61% daily gain and a 33.62% year-on-year surge. This rally reflects a tight global supply situation, driven by maintenance shutdowns at some North American and Asian plants, combined with steady demand from downstream carbon fiber and ABS resin sectors. For downstream industries like acrylic fiber and ABS plastics, cost pressure is building significantly.

In stark contrast, polyester staple fiber fell 0.46% on the day, with a year-on-year gain of only 13.51%, far below that of the polyester filament family (POY +23.88%, FDY +25.92%). This 'strong filament, weak staple' pattern suggests structural differences in end-use demand: the apparel fabric sector still shows robust demand for polyester filament, while nonwovens and filling material applications may face inventory digestion challenges.

Weak Signals from Cotton and Silk

Cotton-based products all weakened: cotton yarn 21S fell 0.14%, 32S fell 0.20%, and raw cotton fell 0.28%. Although year-on-year they still show 5%-13% growth, the daily decline is noteworthy. This may be related to expectations of increased planted area in Xinjiang for the new season and slower offtake from grey fabric mills. For cotton textile enterprises, raw material price easing offers temporary relief, but if end-order follow-through is insufficient, finished goods inventory pressure will rise quickly.

Raw silk fell 0.35% daily, with its year-on-year decline widening to 9.98%, making it the only raw material with a negative annual comparison. This directly reflects the double squeeze of ample cocoon supply and weak silk garment export orders. Spring cocoon purchase prices in Guangxi and Zhejiang have already softened, further compressing reeling mill margins.

The 'Cold Middle, Hot Ends' Pattern in Chemical Fibers

The chemical fiber sector shows a clear structural pattern. PTA edged down 0.06%, polyester POY, FDY, and DTY were flat or slightly lower, but polyester staple fell the most. Meanwhile, the nylon family (DTY, FDY, POY) all held steady, with year-on-year gains of 10%-16%. Viscose staple and spandex prices were flat, with year-on-year gains of 9.74% and 22.34% respectively. The high spandex year-on-year figure warrants attention from downstream stretch fabric buyers.

This pattern means that upstream raw material price fluctuations (acrylonitrile, PTA) are not smoothly transmitted downstream; intermediate products like polyester staple and cotton yarn serve as 'shock absorbers' for price pressure. For textile companies, timing of raw material purchases has become more critical than ever.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - For acrylonitrile-related products (acrylic fiber, ABS), shorten procurement cycles and monitor North American plant restarts to avoid chasing highs. - Polyester staple can be watched with patience; if inventory can cover 2-3 weeks, wait for downstream demand recovery signals before restocking. - Cotton yarn purchases can be phased in, taking advantage of daily dips to lock in some orders, but avoid heavy stockpiling.

For Mills - For chemical fiber production, prioritize polyester filament orders; consider reducing utilization or switching to differentiated products for staple lines. - Silk processors should accelerate inventory turnover to avoid further losses from raw silk price declines. - Monitor spandex price highs and negotiate cost pass-through mechanisms with downstream apparel brands to avoid margin erosion.