The price of polyester staple fiber (PSF) has entered a delicate median zone after a year of significant volatility. According to public industry data, the benchmark price stood at 7498.33 RMB/ton on July 29, 2026, up 1.07% from the beginning of the month, yet with a daily decline of 0.46%. This mixed movement reflects a tug-of-war between cost support and weak demand in the textile raw material market.
Implications of the Median Price
Over the past year, PSF prices fluctuated from a low of 6267.17 RMB/ton to a high of 8426.02 RMB/ton, with an annual average of 7021.68 RMB/ton. The current price of 7498.33 RMB/ton sits above the median of 7346.6 RMB/ton, but still 927.69 RMB/ton below the peak. This suggests that PSF has neither fallen into a bottom zone nor approached historical highs, but rather entered a relatively balanced 'median corridor.'
For downstream weaving mills, a median price typically requires more precise procurement decisions. The arbitrage space for bulk buying at lows has narrowed, while the risk of chasing highs is accumulating. Buyers need to focus on how long this median range can persist and when marginal cost changes might break the balance.
Supply Chain Transmission and Regional Response
As a key raw material for the chemical fiber industry, PSF prices directly impact fabric costs in textile clusters like Shengze, Keqiao, and Nantong. The annual data shows that the bottom price difference (current price minus lowest price) is 1231.16 RMB/ton, narrower than in previous years, indicating weakened cost support.
Meanwhile, the 0.46% daily decline, though modest, occurs after an early-month rise, possibly signaling insufficient downstream orders. For mills in Shengze, if PSF prices hover in the 7000-7500 RMB/ton range, fabric pricing will face increased competitive pressure, as raw material costs cannot be easily passed on to downstream apparel brands.
Reconstructing Price Expectations
The 'one-year position median' indicator suggests that the PSF market has transitioned from a bullish cycle in H2 2025 to a volatile cycle in 2026. The annual average of 7021.68 RMB/ton is significantly lower than the current price, meaning the price center in H1 2026 is above last year's average. The H2 direction will hinge on two key variables: whether crude oil prices remain high, and the recovery pace of garment export orders.
For foreign trade enterprises, the current median price zone offers a relatively stable procurement window. Unless crude oil prices collapse, PSF is likely to fluctuate in the 7000-7600 RMB/ton range, which helps lock in quotes and profit margins for export orders.