The price of cotton yarn 21S is hovering at a high level, but the upward momentum is clearly weakening. According to industry public data, the benchmark price for this variety stood at 23,300 yuan per ton on July 29, down 0.43% from 23,400 yuan at the beginning of the month, with a daily decline of 0.14%. Although the drop is small, it breaks the sideways pattern of recent weeks, suggesting a tilt in market supply-demand balance.
For textile enterprises, this price level means further compression of profit margins. The current price is only 166.67 yuan away from the year's highest point of 23,466.67 yuan, placing it in the high range of the past 12 months. The gap of 1,400 yuan between the current price and the year's low of 21,900 yuan indicates a significant upward shift in the price center of cotton yarn.
Industrial Logic Behind Price Fluctuations
From annual statistical data, the average price of cotton yarn 21S over the past 12 months was 22,502.55 yuan per ton, with a median of 22,683.34 yuan. The current quote of 23,300 yuan is above both the average and median, indicating the market remains in a strong range. However, the daily decline, though tiny, signals a potential retreat from the top.
The high price of upstream cotton is the main factor supporting cotton yarn prices. Rising planting costs in Xinjiang cotton regions, coupled with international cotton price volatility, force spinning mills to maintain high ex-factory prices. Yet downstream weaving and garment enterprises face insufficient orders and have limited acceptance of high-priced cotton yarn, leading to sluggish market transactions.
This tug-of-war between upstream and downstream is particularly evident in textile clusters like Keqiao and Shengze. Local weaving enterprises generally adopt a just-in-time procurement strategy, reducing raw material inventories to avoid price correction risks. Some small spinning mills have begun to offer discounts, but with limited results.
Differentiated Reactions in Regional Industrial Belts
Spinning enterprises in different regions face varying pressures. In traditional cotton spinning areas like Shandong and Henan, inventories are generally high, and capital turnover pressure is increasing. In home textile and yarn-dyed fabric clusters like Nantong, Jiangsu, and Lanxi, Zhejiang, downstream demand for higher quality cotton yarn leaves less room for price negotiation.
Notably, as a representative medium-count yarn, the price trend of cotton yarn 21S is often seen as a barometer of the textile industry's prosperity. The current high-level consolidation with a slight decline may indicate that the traditional peak season in Q3 will start weaker than expected. Foreign trade enterprises report that restocking demand from European and American markets has not yet recovered significantly, and the effect of order diversion to Southeast Asia continues.