Spandex Prices Fluctuate in Narrow Range: Cost Pressure vs. Steady Demand

The spandex market is navigating a delicate balance. On July 29, prices for various spandex specifications in the Xiaoshan-Shaoxing region of Zhejiang remained range-bound, with 20D quoted at 31,000-33,000 RMB/ton, 30D at 31,000-32,000 RMB/ton, and 40D at 28,000-30,000 RMB/ton. These figures reflect an ongoing tug-of-war between weakening cost support and steady downstream procurement.

Cost Side: Raw Material Declines Squeeze Margins

Key spandex raw materials PTMEG and pure MDI have recently seen price corrections, directly undermining cost support for spandex. From a supply chain logic perspective, lower feedstock prices typically ease cost pressures for spandex producers, but they also give downstream buyers leverage to demand lower prices. The fact that spandex prices have not followed raw materials downward but instead chosen to 'consolidate' suggests producers are still trying to protect margins by controlling capacity or adjusting product mix. However, if raw material prices continue to fall, the probability of a downside breakout in spandex prices will increase significantly.

Demand Side: Steady Procurement Only, Speculative Buying Absent

Downstream weaving and garment companies have clearly adopted a conservative procurement strategy. Market feedback indicates that orders are predominantly small-lot and multi-batch, with limited single-purchase volumes focused on immediate production needs. This procurement pattern reflects downstream caution about future price trends—they are reluctant to build inventory when prices may fall further. Meanwhile, speculative hoarding by traders has virtually disappeared, further reducing market resilience. For spandex mills, this means they must compete for orders through more flexible pricing and faster delivery times.

Regional Industrial Belt: Xiaoshan Market as a Bellwether

The Xiaoshan-Shaoxing area in Zhejiang is one of the most concentrated spandex production hubs in China, and its price movements often serve as a national benchmark. Late July market performance shows that spandex plant operating rates in the region remained stable, but inventory levels edged up slightly. This is partly due to lower operating rates at some downstream factories during the hot season, and partly because capacity has recovered after earlier power rationing policies were lifted. The 'consolidation' state of the Xiaoshan market essentially reflects a wait for clearer demand signals—whether from the start of autumn/winter garment orders or a recovery in export markets.

Outlook: Short-Term Volatility, Focus on Cost and Demand Marginal Changes

Looking ahead to August, spandex prices are likely to continue fluctuating within the existing range. An upward breakout requires two conditions to occur simultaneously: a rebound in raw material prices and a clear pickup in downstream orders. Currently, both lack sufficient momentum. Downside risks mainly stem from the possibility of accelerated raw material price declines, which could compress spandex spreads and force mills to cut prices to destock. However, given the high concentration of the spandex industry, leading companies may still coordinate to support prices and maintain the pricing system.

For Buyers - Within the current price range, procure on a need-to basis and avoid bulk stocking due to minor price fluctuations. - Focus on weekly price changes of PTMEG and pure MDI; if raw materials continue to decline, consider delaying large orders. - Sign monthly or quarterly agreements with Xiaoshan suppliers to lock in the current price range and hedge against short-term volatility.

For Traders - Reduce speculative inventory and operate with quick turnaround short orders to minimize capital exposure. - Monitor downstream weaving factory operating rates; a rebound in operating rates is often a leading indicator of demand recovery. - Use futures or forward contracts to hedge raw material price risks, especially while PTMEG prices remain unstable.