Spandex prices are now in a high-level consolidation phase. Data from the Fujian region market on July 29 shows that 20D specification mainstream ex-factory prices remain in the 32,000 to 34,000 yuan/ton range, 30D is quoted at 31,000 to 32,000 yuan/ton, and 40D has reached 29,000 to 31,000 yuan/ton, approaching the 30,000 yuan mark. What does this price level mean? For upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain, the current market is neither a one-sided rally nor a demand trough, but rather a tug-of-war between costs and demand.
From the cost side, the core factor driving spandex prices firm is the sustained high level of raw material prices. Both PTMEG and pure MDI, the two main raw materials, are currently priced in the mid-to-high historical range, directly pushing up spandex production costs. Industry public data shows that raw material costs account for over 70% of spandex production costs, meaning even if downstream purchasing willingness is weak, factories cannot easily lower prices—doing so would incur losses. Therefore, the current prices quoted by Fujian spandex enterprises are more of a 'defensive' pricing strategy passively following costs, rather than an 'offensive' one proactively raising prices.
Price Structure: Narrowing Spread Reveals Industry Concerns
A notable aspect is the change in price spreads between different specifications. The spread between 20D and 40D has narrowed from about 5,000 yuan/ton last year to the current 3,000-4,000 yuan/ton. This trend is not accidental: 20D spandex is mostly used in high-end elastic fabrics and seamless underwear, with relatively rigid demand, while 40D, as the most traded conventional specification, is more sensitive to cost pressures from downstream weaving enterprises. As the 40D price approaches 30,000 yuan, downstream users are clearly shifting to a 'just-in-time, buy-as-needed' strategy, reluctant to sign long-term contracts or make bulk purchases.
This change in purchasing behavior is directly reflected in the shipment rhythm of Fujian spandex factories. According to industry surveys, the operating rate of major spandex enterprises in Fujian remains around 80%, but inventory turnover days have increased by 3-5 days compared to last month, indicating that the risk of 'prices without volume' is accumulating. If costs do not continue to rise, spandex prices may loosen within the current range, especially for the 40D specification, which faces the greatest downward pressure.
Downstream Transmission: Weaving Enterprises' Cost Tolerance Nears Limit
The sustained high spandex prices are transmitting pressure downstream to weaving and garment processing links. As one of China's important textile industry clusters, the Fujian region hosts numerous warp knitting, weft knitting, and elastic fabric producers. These enterprises now face a dilemma: on one hand, end brand customers have limited acceptance of finished fabric price increases, making it difficult to raise order prices synchronously; on the other hand, spandex, as an essential raw material for elastic fabrics, now accounts for over 15% of costs in some products, approaching the upper limit of enterprise cost tolerance.
A noteworthy signal is that some small and medium-sized weaving enterprises have begun adjusting their product mix, reducing the proportion of high-spandex-content fabrics and shifting to low-elastic or non-elastic products. If this 'raw material substitution' behavior spreads, it will exert reverse pressure on spandex prices from the demand side. For large weaving enterprises, long-term relationships and certain pricing power with spandex suppliers currently allow them to smooth cost fluctuations through small-batch, high-frequency purchasing strategies. However, if prices continue to rise, production cuts cannot be ruled out.