The price data for textile bulk commodities on July 29, 2026, sends a critical signal: a clear divergence between PTA and cotton. The former rose 0.40% daily, while the latter fell 0.26%, with year-on-year differences exceeding 10 percentage points. This divergence is not accidental but reflects the structural contradictions in the current textile raw materials market.
Divergence Between Chemical and Natural Fibers
PTA recorded a 0.40% increase to 6,017.34 yuan/ton, up 23.73% year-on-year. Polyester staple fiber followed with a 0.17% rise, up 13.89% year-on-year. Meanwhile, cotton fell 0.26% to 17,564.67 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of only 12.90%, far below PTA's. Raw silk remained flat at 422,700 yuan/ton, down 9.98% year-on-year.
This divergence indicates that the upward momentum for chemical fiber raw materials mainly comes from crude oil cost transmission and high operating rates in the downstream polyester chain. Cotton's pressure stems from global production increase expectations and ample supply from domestic reserve releases. Silk's persistent weakness is directly linked to sluggish demand for genuine silk end products.
Dual Game of Cost and Supply-Demand
On the cost side, international oil prices remained high in late July, directly pushing up PTA production costs. Concentrated maintenance of domestic PTA units tightened spot supply, further amplifying price elasticity. Polyester staple fiber's follow-up rise reflects the cost transmission capacity of the polyester segment.
On the cotton side, upstream ginning factories face high inventory pressure, while downstream yarn companies are cautious in procurement. Cotton yarn prices (21S and 32S) remained stable on the day but did not adjust with cotton's decline, indicating compressed profit margins in the yarn segment. Viscose staple fiber and polyester yarn prices also held steady, suggesting non-cotton fiber markets are awaiting clearer direction.
Impact on Downstream Procurement Strategies
For fabric and garment companies, the current market divergence calls for differentiated procurement strategies. PTA and polyester raw materials may maintain short-term strength, suggesting moderate advance purchasing to lock in costs. Cotton raw materials may see further corrections, allowing a hand-to-mouth procurement approach with reduced inventory.
It is worth noting that PTA's year-on-year increase has exceeded 23%, at a historical high. Once oil prices correct or polyester demand weakens, downside risks cannot be ignored. Cotton's year-on-year increase is relatively moderate, but with new cotton supply approaching, supply pressure will persist.
Industry Profit Redistribution
From a chain profit perspective, current profits concentrate more in upstream raw materials, especially PTA and acrylonitrile (up 34.18% year-on-year). Midstream polyester filament (POY, DTY, FDY) year-on-year increases range from 18% to 26%, largely keeping pace with raw material gains. However, downstream cotton yarn and viscose yarn only rose 4%-5%, significantly squeezing profit margins.
This profit distribution pattern pressures weaving and dyeing companies. If terminal orders cannot synchronize price increases, intermediate segment profitability will continue to deteriorate. Industry consolidation may accelerate, with companies possessing cost control capabilities and product differentiation advantages becoming more resilient.
Outlook
In the short term, PTA still has room to rise supported by costs and tight supply, but attention must be paid to whether polyester terminal demand can sustain. Cotton prices may maintain weak volatility under increased supply and stable demand. Whether raw silk prices stabilize depends on the recovery of export orders for silk garments in the second half.
In the medium to long term, the price ratio between chemical and natural fibers may further adjust. When the spread between PTA and cotton widens sufficiently, downstream companies may adjust their blend ratios to increase cotton usage, creating a new price balance.