The price signals in the spandex market are becoming subtle. Data from the Fujian region on July 29 shows that prices across various spandex specifications have been fluctuating within a narrow range for weeks without a clear directional breakout. The mainstream ex-factory price for 20D is stable at 32,000-34,000 RMB/ton, 30D at 31,000-32,000 RMB/ton, and 40D at 29,000-31,000 RMB/ton. This price range has persisted for nearly two weeks, reflecting the intense tug-of-war between upstream and downstream players.
The Standoff Between Cost Push and Weak Demand
The core contradiction in the current spandex market lies between strong cost-side support and cautious demand-side follow-through. Upstream raw material prices continue to run high, providing spandex producers with the confidence to hold prices firm. However, downstream weaving mills, especially those in Fujian specializing in stretch fabrics, have significantly lowered their acceptance of high-priced raw materials. Procurement strategies have shifted from 'active stockpiling' to 'demand-based replenishment,' directly capping the upside for spandex prices. This 'cost-push' scenario, without demand coordination, risks falling into a stalemate of high prices with no transaction volume.
Structural Opportunities in Specification Spreads
From the price quotes across different specifications, the spread between 20D and 40D has widened to 3,000-5,000 RMB/ton. 20D, a fine denier yarn used mainly in high-end underwear and yoga wear requiring high elasticity and comfort, has relatively rigid demand and stronger price resilience. In contrast, 40D, a standard specification widely used in apparel and hosiery, faces more intense market competition and greater price elasticity. This spread structure suggests to buyers: in a high-cost environment, the bargaining room for 40D may be greater than for 20D, but vigilance is needed against fluctuations in end-user orders.
Regional Characteristics of Fujian's Industrial Belt
Fujian, as a key spandex production base and consumption market in China, has price trends that serve as a bellwether. Cities like Jinjiang and Changle in Fujian host numerous warp-knitting and weft-knitting enterprises, with demand focused on mid-to-high-end stretch fabrics. The current market consolidation largely reflects that the core customer base's sensitivity to raw material costs is nearing a tipping point. Should terminal apparel orders decline, spandex prices in Fujian may be the first to come under pressure. Conversely, if pre-stocking demand from promotional seasons like 'Double 11' kicks in early, it could break the deadlock.
The Transmission Chain Under Test
Whether spandex prices can break out of the current range hinges on two transmission chains: first, whether upstream raw material prices like PTMEG and MDI can remain firm; second, whether downstream apparel brands can accept higher fabric costs. Currently, both are uncertain. Fluctuations in international crude oil prices may impact chemical raw material costs, while the strength of domestic consumption recovery directly determines the scale of apparel orders. For spandex producers, maintaining current price levels is the baseline, but further price increases require clearer demand signals.