PTA Leads Gains, Cotton Under Pressure: Analyzing Textile Raw Material Price Divergence on July 29

A seemingly negligible 0.02% daily average change on July 29, 2026, masks a significant divergence within the textile raw material market. PTA and polyester staple fiber posted gains, while cotton slipped into negative territory. This tug-of-war reflects fundamentally different supply-demand dynamics and cost transmission paths between the chemical fiber and natural fiber chains.

Chemical Fiber Chain: Cost-Driven Momentum Meets Demand Resilience

PTA rose 0.40% to 6,017.34 yuan per ton, with a year-on-year increase of 23.73%. This is no isolated event—polyester staple fiber, POY, DTY, and FDY all posted year-on-year gains ranging from 13% to 25%, while spandex surged 22.34%. The entire chemical fiber sector is in a broad upward trend.

The primary driver is upstream cost pressure. Sustained high crude oil prices have pushed up PX costs, which cascade down to PTA. As the linchpin of the polyester chain, PTA price movements quickly transmit through polyester filaments and staple fiber to downstream weaving and apparel fabric sectors. For mills in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, this means significantly higher raw material procurement costs year-on-year, squeezing margins further.

However, cost alone does not explain the full picture. Polyester staple fiber's 13.89% year-on-year gain and polyester FDY's 25.57% increase both exceed PTA's rise, indicating that downstream demand for chemical fiber products remains relatively robust. Home textile and apparel fabric sectors continue to show rigid demand for polyester, while some substitution away from cotton is providing additional support.

Natural Fibers: Cotton's Subtle Decline Signals Underlying Weakness

In stark contrast to chemical fibers, cotton fell 0.26% to 17,564.67 yuan per ton. Although still up 12.90% year-on-year, its relative underperformance against booming chemical fibers warrants attention.

Raw silk held steady at 422,700 yuan per ton but posted a year-on-year decline of 9.98%—the only major category with negative annual growth. This suggests weak demand for natural fibers overall. On one hand, synthetic fibers continue to gain share in end-use apparel; on the other, the price advantage of polyester and viscose is eroding cotton's market share. For cotton-producing regions like Xinjiang and textile clusters in Shandong and Henan, sustained cotton price weakness could dampen new-crop procurement expectations and planting intentions.

Cotton yarn 21S and 32S prices were flat on the day, with year-on-year gains of only 5.11% and 4.56% respectively—far below the 12.90% rise in raw cotton. This margin squeeze means spinning mills are buying expensive cotton but struggling to pass costs through to downstream grey fabric and garment manufacturers.

Acrylonitrile: The Overlooked 34% Surge

Acrylonitrile prices were unchanged at 10,533.33 yuan per ton on the day, but its year-on-year increase of 34.18% is the highest among all tracked categories. Acrylonitrile is a key raw material for acrylic fiber, ABS plastics, and carbon fiber. This 34% jump signals accumulating cost pressure for acrylic yarn, outdoor apparel fabrics, and industrial textiles. For foreign trade companies dealing in blended or workwear fabrics, this is a clear signal to lock in raw material contracts early or adjust pricing terms.

Procurement Implications in a Divergent Market

The current market structure can be summarized as "strong chemical fibers, weak natural fibers, squeezed intermediate processing." This is not a market where historical playbooks apply.

For Procurement Teams - Chemical fiber raw materials (PTA, polyester, spandex) remain in an upward channel. Adopt a phased procurement approach to avoid being caught at the peak. For long-cycle orders, consider floating-price agreements with suppliers. - Cotton price weakness may present tactical buying opportunities, but decisions should be weighed against new-crop output forecasts and downstream order visibility. If cotton yarn prices remain subdued, maintain caution and wait for clearer bottom signals. - Monitor acrylonitrile downstream products (e.g., acrylic yarn) for cost pass-through. Consider pre-locking a portion of usage if price acceleration is expected.

For Foreign Trade Enterprises - Export quotations for chemical fiber fabrics should be adjusted in line with raw material indices (e.g., PTA, polyester POY). Include raw material price adjustment clauses in contracts to avoid margin erosion from dual currency and material volatility. - For cotton-based exports, beware of "cost inversion" risk: when domestic cotton prices exceed international levels, verify yarn cost against order pricing before committing. - Raw silk's nearly 10% year-on-year decline means silk products may gain price competitiveness overseas. Proactively push quotations to European, Japanese, and Korean buyers to capture market share.