On July 30, the benchmark price of viscose staple fiber 1.2D settled at 14,200 yuan per ton, exactly matching the highest point over the past twelve months. Looking at the complete price trajectory from July 2025 to July 2026, the lowest value was 12,800 yuan per ton, the highest is the current 14,200 yuan per ton, with a median of 13,500 yuan per ton. This means the current price is not only at a high level but also coincides perfectly with the peak, leaving no room for further upside.
Supply-Demand Logic Behind High Prices
Industry public data shows the average price over the past year was 13,297.27 yuan per ton, with the current price approximately 6.8% above that average. From the annual statistical bottom difference of 1,400 yuan per ton, it can be inferred that prices have rebounded over 10% from the year's low, and the entire upward process has lasted nearly 12 months. Behind this trend lies the dual effect of rising upstream raw material costs and phased recovery in downstream demand. The main raw material for viscose staple fiber—dissolving pulp—has remained firm during the same period, while the textile end-market experienced a certain degree of inventory replenishment in the first half of 2026, supporting viscose staple fiber prices even during the off-season.
Notably, compared with the same period one year ago, prices have climbed from a low to the top, and the daily change is zero, indicating that the market has entered a stalemate at the current level. Expectations between buyers and sellers diverge: upstream factories tend to maintain high prices to realize profits, while downstream users are beginning to wait and see, expecting price concessions. This game often signals that prices are about to make a directional choice.
Transmission Effects on the Downstream Chain
Viscose staple fiber is the core raw material for producing rayon yarn (viscose yarn), and its price changes directly transmit to the yarn segment. According to industry practice, viscose staple fiber accounts for 60%-70% of rayon yarn production costs. Therefore, a raw material price of 14,200 yuan per ton means the cost floor for rayon yarn has been raised. For spinning enterprises, if they cannot effectively pass on cost pressures to downstream weaving mills, profit margins will be severely squeezed.
- Rayon yarn prices may follow the increase in the short term, but the extent depends on whether end-use fabric demand can match.
- Weaving enterprises face a dilemma: accepting high-priced yarn raises fabric costs, while refusing procurement risks production halts.
- Apparel brand orders in the second half of 2026 may lean towards alternatives such as polyester blends or Tencel to avoid the risk of viscose raw material price hikes.
From the perspective of industrial cluster reactions, in major rayon yarn producing areas such as Xiaoshan, Shaoxing, and Fujian Changle, some small and medium-sized spinning mills have begun to reduce operating rates to cope with the scissors gap between high raw material prices and hindered finished product price increases. If this cautious sentiment spreads, it may in turn suppress demand for viscose staple fiber, triggering a price correction.
Price Expectations and Operational Strategies
The current viscose staple fiber price has entered a "3-year overbought" warning zone, a risk alert automatically triggered by the system based on historical data. Technically, prices have stalled around 14,200 yuan per ton for several days with zero daily change, indicating upward momentum has exhausted. Without new demand stimulus or cost push, prices are likely to revert to the median of 13,500 yuan per ton, a correction of approximately 5%.
However, the possibility of continued consolidation or even a slight uptick cannot be ruled out. Dissolving pulp supply in the third quarter of 2026 carries uncertainty; if overseas pulp mills undergo maintenance or logistics are disrupted, the cost side may again exert pressure. Additionally, fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate will affect the procurement cost of imported dissolving pulp, thereby transmitting to viscose staple fiber pricing.