The price of Nylon DTY has experienced a wide fluctuation from 13,560 RMB/ton to 18,960 RMB/ton over the past year, and the current benchmark price of 16,120 RMB/ton sits exactly on the median line of the annual price range. This position is neither a trough nor a peak, but precisely the signal that the industry should watch most closely—the market is shifting from a one-way trend to a structural game.
Logic Behind the Price Center Shift
Compared with the beginning of the month, the price of Nylon DTY increased by 1.77%, an absolute increase of 280 RMB/ton. This increase seems moderate, but when observed in the annual cycle, the current price is about 6.5% higher than the annual average of 15,134 RMB/ton. More importantly, the price is at the median rather than the low, meaning the market has left the bottom range but still has 2,840 RMB of space to the top.
This median operation pattern usually signals two things: first, the upstream cost side has formed a new support platform; second, downstream demand has not experienced explosive growth but has not shrunk significantly. For the nylon industry chain, raw material prices such as caprolactam have remained firm since the second quarter, directly pushing up the cost of nylon chips and then transmitting to the DTY segment.
Notably, the current price is only 140 RMB away from the median value of 16,260 RMB/ton, almost perfectly matching. This precise 'median-sticking' operation historically often indicates that the price will choose a direction in the short term—either breaking upward to form a new upward channel or pulling back downward to confirm the bottom.
Industrial Belt Reactions and Transmission
From the perspective of industrial belts, the main production areas of Nylon DTY are concentrated in Changle (Fujian), Wujiang (Jiangsu), and Xiaoshan (Zhejiang). Small and medium-sized enterprises in these regions face a dilemma: raw material procurement costs are rising, but the order prices from downstream weaving companies cannot be adjusted upward simultaneously. Some factories have begun to adjust product structures, reducing output of conventional specifications and shifting to differentiated products such as nylon 66 or functional nylon.
Meanwhile, the frequency of inquiry for foreign trade orders has increased. Demand for mid-to-high-end nylon fabrics in European and Southeast Asian markets showed signs of recovery at the end of the second quarter, but buyers generally adopt a small-batch, high-frequency strategy to avoid inventory risks. This change in order structure has increased liquidity in the Nylon DTY spot market but weakened bargaining power for large orders.
For weaving companies, the current price environment means compressed profit margins. If Nylon DTY prices continue to rise, weaving mills will be forced to increase gray fabric quotes, and the acceptance level of end garment brands remains to be seen. This game between upstream and downstream will be verified in the traditional peak season of 'Golden September and Silver October' at the end of the third quarter.
Inventory Cycle and Price Expectations
From an inventory perspective, the current social inventory of Nylon DTY is at a moderate level, with factory inventory pressure not high. This contrasts with the destocking cycle following the rapid capacity expansion in the past two years. Industry public data shows that from the second half of 2025 to the first half of 2026, the pace of new capacity additions in the nylon industry has slowed significantly, easing supply-side pressure.
However, uncertainty on the demand side remains. Domestic textile and apparel retail growth is slowing, and the export market faces dual challenges of geopolitical tensions and exchange rate fluctuations. Whether Nylon DTY prices can hold the median and break upward depends on two variables: whether upstream raw material prices continue to rise, and whether downstream orders can increase during the peak season.
Historically, the probability of prices breaking upward from the median is about 60%, but the extent of the breakout is often limited. Given the current weak macro environment, it is expected that Nylon DTY will operate in the range of 15,500-17,000 RMB/ton in the third quarter, with little likelihood of significant upward or downward movements.