At 14,000 RMB per ton, the benchmark price of nylon POY on July 30 sits just 125 RMB below the arithmetic median of the past twelve months. Behind this seemingly flat figure lies a tightening supply-demand rope.
Price Anchored at Mid-Level, Market Lacks Direction
According to publicly available data from the China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, nylon POY prices fluctuated between 11,300 and 16,950 RMB/ton over the year ending July 30, 2026—a spread of 5,650 RMB. The current price of 14,000 RMB/ton is neither near the bottom (with a bottom-to-current gap of 2,700 RMB) nor close to the top (top-to-current gap of -2,950 RMB), landing almost exactly at the median value of 14,125 RMB.
What does this imply? From an industrial perspective, a mid-range price typically corresponds to neutral inventory levels and stable operating rates. However, the zero daily change is noteworthy: consecutive days of no movement often signal that both buyers and sellers are unwilling to break the stalemate. For downstream weaving mills, the current price offers neither the urgency to build inventory nor the incentive to stockpile.
Cost Transmission Through the Annual Cycle
Looking back over the past year, nylon POY prices rose from a trough of 11,300 RMB/ton, peaked at 16,950 RMB/ton in Q4 2025, and then retreated to stabilize. This trajectory is closely tied to the capacity release of upstream caprolactam. Industry data shows that approximately 600,000 tons/year of new caprolactam capacity came online in H2 2025, creating a temporary oversupply at the feedstock level and putting pressure on nylon chip and POY prices.
Since Q2 2026, however, maintenance shutdowns at some caprolactam plants, coupled with recovering demand for nylon filament yarn, have gradually lifted prices. The 2.56% month-on-month increase from 13,650 RMB/ton in early July to 14,000 RMB/ton at month-end, while modest, reversed two consecutive months of decline. For buyers, this suggests that the cost floor may have passed, but the upside remains capped.
Downstream Impact on Weaving and Apparel Exports
Nylon POY is the key raw material for producing nylon DTY and FDY, which ultimately go into sportswear, lingerie, and outdoor gear. At the current mid-range price, apparel brands and traders face a relatively safe replenishment window—no risk of buying at the top, nor fear of supply shortages.
However, the twelve-month average of 12,894.95 RMB/ton indicates that the current price is about 8.6% above the long-term mean. If downstream orders fail to materialize as expected, this premium may be absorbed by weaving mills, squeezing their margins. For export-oriented nylon fabric companies, the dual pressure of RMB exchange rate fluctuations and overseas destocking is compounding the raw material cost challenge.