PTA prices reached 6,017.34 yuan per ton on July 30, up 3.34% from the beginning of the month. This figure represents a structural reassessment of cost systems in the textile upstream. From a full-year perspective, the current price has entered the mid-to-high range of the past year, still about 915 yuan below the historical peak of 6,932.90 yuan, but nearly 38% higher than the year's low of 4,363.25 yuan.
For polyester plants, this means direct raw material costs for each ton of polyester filament have increased by approximately 600 yuan. Given an industry-average PTA consumption coefficient of 1.02, this increase is almost fully transmitted to chips and filament yarn. The weaving sector now faces the problem that end-order price adjustments lag significantly, widening the scissors gap between grey fabric quotes and raw material costs.
Cost Transmission and Inventory Dynamics
PTA's wide fluctuation from 4,363 yuan to 6,932 yuan over the past year reveals a mismatch between upstream capacity expansion and downstream demand recovery. New PTA capacity in China was concentrated in Q2 2025, but downstream polyester operating rates did not climb synchronously, leading to inventory accumulation. Entering July, major polyester plants adjusted contract volumes and spot purchases to push prices to current levels.
The underlying logic of this rally is not demand explosion but cost-push combined with temporary supply tightening. In the PX-PTA-polyester chain, PX prices are more directly influenced by international oil price volatility, while PTA plant processing margins have been compressed to a low 300-400 yuan per ton. This means any slight movement in PX can cause significant elasticity in PTA prices.
For fabric buyers, the current mid-to-high PTA price range suggests raw material costs will likely remain rigid in H2. Historically, when PTA prices exceed 5,800 yuan per ton for three consecutive months, grey fabric prices typically adjust upward by 3%-5% within a quarter. This condition has now been triggered.
Regional Industrial Belt Divergence
Reactions in Keqiao and Shengze, two major grey fabric production bases, show clear differences. Shengze market, dominated by polyester filament products, is most sensitive to PTA prices. Some large weaving mills have recently raised quotes for standard varieties by 0.05-0.10 yuan per meter. In Keqiao, where blended and rayon products account for a higher share, price adjustments lag.
Small and medium weaving mills face more acute pressure. They typically purchase raw materials on a hand-to-mouth basis, unable to lock in costs via futures or forward contracts. If PTA prices remain above 6,000 yuan per ton, their processing profits will be squeezed to below breakeven. Industry data shows processing gross margins in the grey fabric segment have narrowed from 8%-10% at the start of the year to 4%-6%.