On August 3, the polyester filament market in Shengze continued its sluggish tone, with bulk transactions rare. Major polyester producers kept listed prices stable, but some POY ex-works prices showed slight downward adjustments, reflecting a tug-of-war between upstream and downstream during the summer lull. Data from industry monitors showed that dozens of FDY specifications held flat day-on-day, with price resilience underpinned by cost support amid weak demand.
Price Stalemate: Cost Floor vs. Demand Fatigue
In the semi-dull FDY segment, 40D/12F was quoted at 10,100 yuan/ton, 50D/24F ranged between 9,700 and 9,800 yuan/ton, 75D/36F concentrated at 9,200-9,400 yuan/ton, 150D/96F at 8,600-8,700 yuan/ton, and 300D/144F fell to 8,300-8,400 yuan/ton. Bright FDY carried a 100-200 yuan/ton premium over semi-dull for similar deniers, while fully dull FDY, due to process premiums, saw 50D/48F quoted at 12,000-12,100 yuan/ton, significantly higher. DTY 75D/36F was at 10,300-10,400 yuan/ton, and 100D/36F at 9,900-10,000 yuan/ton, maintaining a 600-800 yuan/ton spread over FDY, within a reasonable processing margin.
Notably, all monitored specifications showed zero change from the previous day, uncommon for this time of year. In past summers, polyester plants often offered discounts to alleviate inventory pressure. However, firm upstream costs for PTA and MEG have compressed their room for price cuts. A major local direct-spinning plant kept all ex-works prices unchanged, indicating that leading enterprises prefer to sacrifice sales volume rather than break price solidarity—a strong signal of price support.
Summer Heat and Output Cuts: Changing Procurement Logic
The core constraint is not cost but downstream demand. Prolonged high temperatures have reduced operating rates at weaving mills in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, with some small mills opting for staggered production or temporary shutdowns, slowing their procurement pace. Weaving enterprises lack confidence and maintain just-in-time replenishment, with bulk purchases nearly absent. This has weighed on polyester plants' sales-to-production ratios.
For buyers, this means bargaining space is opening. Although major producers keep listed prices firm, actual transactions are increasingly negotiated case-by-case, with implicit discounts on small orders. Traders report that some POY specifications are transacting 50-100 yuan/ton below list prices, while DTY, affected by heat-related power curbs in the texturing sector, sees relatively tighter supply and firmer prices. This structural divergence suggests that bargaining power varies by product category.
Outlook: Narrow Fluctuations and Operational Windows
In the short term, polyester plants prioritize destocking, but cost support limits downside. If feedstock prices ease, POY and FDY may follow; conversely, if cooler weather boosts weaving resumption, a demand-driven restocking wave could emerge. Public industry data shows polyester inventories have risen to a moderate-high level but have not yet formed selling pressure.
For weavers and traders, excessive pessimism is unwarranted, but blind bottom-fishing is also risky. Key signals to watch include international oil price trends and PTA plant maintenance schedules, operating rates at weaving clusters like Shengze and Changxing, and monthly settlement policies of major producers. If operating rates rebound for two consecutive weeks, it could signal a demand inflection point, warranting increased stockpiling.