On August 3, the acrylonitrile price jumped 2.69% in a single day, becoming the most striking figure in the textile raw material sector. This is not an isolated incident—its year-on-year increase has reached 44.42%, while PTA rose 1.37% and its annual gain widened to 25.01%. The collective strength at the raw material end contrasts sharply with the 0.06% drop in polyester staple fiber, revealing a dramatic shift in profit distribution along the textile supply chain.
The Underlying Logic of Raw Material Price Hikes
The acrylonitrile surge is not accidental. On the supply side, maintenance at several plants and delayed shipping schedules have tightened spot availability; on the cost side, high propylene prices provide solid support. Notably, this uptrend has persisted for months, with a 44.42% year-on-year increase meaning downstream acrylic fiber and ABS users are under immense cost pressure. PTA's rise is more influenced by crude oil fluctuations and tight PX supply, and the 25.01% annual growth indicates that cost transmission in the polyester chain has entered deep water.
In contrast, polyester staple fiber did not rise but fell slightly, despite a 14.96% year-on-year gain. The 0.06% daily drop exposes weak end-user demand. This "hot above, cold below" pattern means costs cannot be smoothly passed on, and midstream producers face squeezed margins from both sides.
Industrial Signals Behind Price Divergence
Among the 16 monitored products, only 3 rose, 1 fell, and the rest were flat. This pattern of broad stability with a few outliers typically occurs when the market direction is unclear and long and short positions are in a tug-of-war. Notably, cotton yarn, viscose staple fiber, and spandex prices remained unchanged, indicating no trend change in downstream orders and that companies are mostly digesting inventories while waiting.
The slight 0.07% rise in raw silk, against a 9.39% year-on-year decline, reflects that the silk industry remains at a cyclical bottom. Meanwhile, nylon series products (DTY, FDY, POY) all show annual gains above 10%, indicating a relatively stable nylon chain, but the lack of daily movement suggests no new drivers.
For buyers, the direct consequence of raw material divergence is that procurement strategies must be more refined. The strength in acrylonitrile and PTA implies that related downstream products (acrylic yarn, polyester filament) may see follow-through increases; the weakness in polyester staple fiber could offer a window for bargain hunting. But caution is needed—if crude oil pulls back, the logic for PTA strength weakens, and chasing becomes riskier.
Price Expectations and Operational Advice
Looking ahead, the tight supply of acrylonitrile is unlikely to change in the short term, prices will likely remain firm, but 44% annual gains have already priced in much of the expectation, so chasing highs requires caution. PTA needs close monitoring of PX plant dynamics and oil trends, with volatility likely to increase. For polyester staple fiber, if downstream demand remains weak, prices may continue to drift lower, but cost support will limit downside. Overall, the third quarter will likely maintain a pattern of "strong raw materials, weak demand," with profits continuing to concentrate upstream.