On the first trading day of August, the textile raw material market showed a rare divergence: acrylonitrile jumped 2.69% in a single day, with a year-on-year increase expanding to 44.42%, while PTA rose 1.37% and polyester staple fiber fell slightly by 0.06%. This rise and fall reflects the tug-of-war between upstream cost restructuring and weak downstream demand in the chemical fiber chain, prompting buyers and exporters to reassess pricing logic.
Cost Pass-Through Behind Price Moves
Acrylonitrile's lead is not isolated. Year-on-year, its price is more than 40% higher than the same period last year, far exceeding other chemical fiber varieties. Acrylonitrile is mainly used to produce acrylic fiber, ABS resin, and carbon fiber precursors. Its raw materials are propylene and liquid ammonia. Recent international oil price fluctuations and petrochemical plant maintenance have tightened supply, directly pushing up production costs. PTA rose 1.37%, with a year-on-year increase of 25.01%, also constrained by crude oil prices and PX supply. In contrast, polyester staple fiber fell slightly, with a year-on-year increase of only 14.96%, indicating that terminal orders have limited acceptance of price increases, forcing factories to sacrifice profits to maintain volume.
Notably, raw silk rose marginally by 0.07% but still fell 9.39% year-on-year, showing that the mulberry silk industry chain remains weak. Cotton yarn, viscose staple fiber, and spandex prices were flat, but spandex's year-on-year increase reached 22.34%, and polyester POY and FDY both rose over 23% year-on-year, indicating that earlier cost pressures have gradually passed through to the yarn segment.
Industry Impact: Strong Upstream, Pressured Downstream
The core contradiction of this price divergence is that upstream raw material costs are high, while midstream and downstream textile enterprises have limited ability to raise prices. The rise in acrylonitrile and PTA means production costs for acrylic and polyester filament will further increase, but terminal demand for clothing and home textiles is recovering slowly, making it difficult for weaving enterprises to fully pass on costs. This shifts profits to the upstream, squeezing midstream processing links, and some small and medium factories may be forced to reduce production or delay purchases.
From a regional cluster perspective, polyester filament hubs like Shengze and Changxing, as well as the chemical fiber fabric base in Keqiao, will directly feel raw material cost fluctuations. For suppliers relying on PTA and acrylonitrile, it is crucial to monitor petrochemical plant operating rates and inventory changes to judge price sustainability. Meanwhile, the slight decline in polyester staple fiber may trigger substitution effects, with some blended fabric enterprises increasing staple fiber usage to adjust product mix.
Practical Recommendations
For Buyers - Monitor the spread between futures and spot prices of acrylonitrile and PTA; if the spread widens, consider locking in forward contracts to hedge against further increases. - For weak varieties like polyester staple fiber, consider increasing purchase volumes moderately to take advantage of low prices, but control total inventory to avoid demand fluctuations. - Establish price linkage mechanisms with upstream suppliers, adjusting purchase prices monthly to reduce the impact of single price hikes.
For Exporters - Include raw material price fluctuation clauses in export quotations to avoid erosion of profit margins due to rises in acrylonitrile and other materials. - Prioritize orders for high value-added products, such as differential fiber fabrics, to offset raw material cost pressure. - Monitor exchange rates and shipping costs; if raw material prices continue to rise, consider negotiating quarterly price adjustments with clients.
Overall, the August raw material price divergence signals a rebalancing of costs and demand. Textile enterprises should abandon one-sided expectations and respond to volatility through flexible procurement and product upgrading to stabilize their position in the new cycle.