The August 3 bulk commodity price monitoring data in the textile sector reveals an unusual signal: acrylonitrile rose 2.69% in a single day, PTA gained 1.37%, while downstream products like raw silk and polyester staple fiber showed weakness. The divergence between raw materials and fibers suggests that the cost transmission chain is not smooth, and the ability of end demand to absorb costs is being tested.
Background
Looking at specific data, acrylonitrile prices rose from 11,133.33 yuan/ton on July 31 to 11,433.33 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 44.42%. PTA also climbed to 6,027 yuan/ton, up 25.01% year-on-year. In contrast, polyester staple fiber fell slightly by 0.06% to 7,560.58 yuan/ton, while raw silk edged up 0.07% but still declined 9.39% year-on-year. Cotton, cotton yarn, viscose staple fiber, and spandex prices remained flat, with the overall average daily change at 0.24%.
This price structure is not accidental. Acrylonitrile and PTA are upstream raw materials in the chemical fiber chain, and their strength is closely tied to crude oil and petrochemical price fluctuations. Meanwhile, downstream polyester filament and nylon products held steady, and polyester staple fiber even dipped slightly, indicating that cost increases have not yet been effectively passed through, and downstream mills have limited tolerance for higher raw material prices.
Notably, raw silk fell nearly 10% year-on-year, while most other products saw positive annual growth, pointing to independent demand pressure for silk products. This may relate to fluctuations in silk product export orders and intensified competition from substitute fibers, warranting continuous tracking by industry players.
Industry Impact
The price divergence between raw materials and fibers directly affects profit distribution across the chain. For acrylic fiber producers using acrylonitrile, rising raw material costs will squeeze processing margins; if they cannot pass costs downstream, they may face production cuts or product mix adjustments. Conversely, PTA price hikes have a more complex impact on polyester plants—PTA is a main raw material for polyester filament, but POY, DTY, and FDY prices remained flat, implying narrowing profit margins in the polyester segment.
For buyers, the current environment of volatile raw material prices but stable or falling fiber prices offers a temporary procurement window for fabric manufacturers. However, this pattern of rising raw materials and stable fibers is unlikely to persist. Once raw material costs stay elevated, the probability of fiber price catch-up increases. Buyers should be wary of future cost pass-through risks.
Foreign trade enterprises face another challenge: the combination of RMB exchange rate fluctuations and international market uncertainty, coupled with rising raw material costs, may weaken the price competitiveness of export products. Especially for raw silk-related products, the year-on-year decline already reflects export pressure. Companies should monitor overseas order changes and avoid inventory buildup.