Acrylonitrile Surges 2.69% in a Day: What Does Divergence in Textile Raw Material Prices Signal?

The price monitoring data for textile bulk commodities on August 3 reveals a clear signal: the raw material side is undergoing a dramatic repricing. Acrylonitrile jumped 2.69% in a single day, with a year-on-year surge of 44.42%; PTA also strengthened, rising 25.01% annually. On the other hand, polyester staple fiber dipped slightly by 0.06%, and raw silk fell 9.39% year-on-year. Behind this divergence lie profound changes in supply-demand dynamics across the industry chain.

Background

Among the 16 monitored varieties, only three rose, one fell, and the rest remained flat. At first glance, the market seemed calm, but the movements in acrylonitrile and PTA deserve attention. Acrylonitrile jumped from 11,133.33 yuan/ton to 11,433.33 yuan/ton, setting a recent record for daily gain; PTA rose from 5,945.75 to 6,027.00 yuan/ton. Notably, the year-on-year gains of these two far exceed other raw materials, indicating that the uptrend is not a short-term fluctuation but has persisted for a while.

In contrast to the strength of chemical fiber raw materials, natural fibers remain weak. Raw silk fell 9.39% year-on-year, despite a marginal daily increase of 0.07%. Cotton and cotton yarn prices were flat but still up 14.20% and 5.11% year-on-year, suggesting high-level consolidation. This pattern of "strong chemical fibers, weak naturals" is closely tied to global supply chain adjustments and raw material substitution trends.

Industry Impact

The sustained rise in acrylonitrile exerts direct cost pressure on downstream industries such as acrylic fiber and ABS resin. For textile enterprises, this means significantly higher procurement costs, especially for products relying on acrylonitrile like acrylic yarn and blankets. The increase in PTA transmits to polyester filament and staple fiber; although polyester staple fiber dipped slightly on the day, the annual gain of 14.96% indicates strong cost support. Polyester POY, FDY, and DTY all rose between 17% and 24% year-on-year, showing that the entire polyester chain is operating at high levels.

This price divergence has profound implications for procurement strategies. On one hand, the strength of chemical fiber raw materials may prompt some companies to shift to substitute fibers, such as using polyester to partially replace acrylic, or using viscose staple fiber (up 9.40% annually) to balance costs. On the other hand, the low price of raw silk offers a window for silk buyers, but they must watch for future supply changes. For foreign trade enterprises, the uncertainty in raw material costs complicates pricing, especially for long-term contracts.

It is worth noting that spandex rose 22.34% year-on-year, and nylon series increased by 10%-16%. These rises in elastic and nylon products may affect export margins for sportswear and underwear. Cotton yarn prices are relatively stable, but with cotton up 14.20% year-on-year, if cotton prices continue to climb, cotton yarn may follow. Overall, the textile raw material market has entered a phase of "high costs, high volatility."

Practical Advice

For Buyers - For strong raw materials like acrylonitrile and PTA, adopt phased purchasing to avoid chasing highs, and consider long-term contract locking. - With raw silk at low levels, consider increasing purchases or signing long-term agreements, but assess cocoon supply stability. - For polyester products, the short-term dip is not trend-setting; adjust inventory flexibly based on order cycles.

For Foreign Trade Enterprises - Include price fluctuation clauses in quotations, such as price adjustment formulas, to mitigate cost risks. - Monitor the price gap between chemical fibers and natural fibers, and adjust product mix accordingly, such as promoting blended products. - Use futures instruments to hedge against price fluctuations in PTA and cotton yarn, but operate cautiously.