On August 3, the quoted range for polyester FDY (150D/96F, semi-dull, AA grade) settled between 8,800 and 9,060 yuan per ton, with the spread among five major Zhejiang-based suppliers narrowing to just 260 yuan, a clear signal that the chemical fiber chain is transitioning from a one-sided decline to a low-level stalemate.
Quotation Structure Analysis
Looking at the distribution, Rongsheng Petrochemical and Juxing Chemical both quoted 8,800 yuan, forming the lower bound; Jiabao Fiber quoted 8,950, Tiansheng Chemical 8,960, and Tongkun Group 9,060, creating a stepped pattern. Notably, Tongkun's quote is 260 yuan above the lower limit, a moderate premium in recent months, indicating that leading players still attempt to maintain brand value, yet the overall price center has clearly moved downward.
Year-over-year, current prices are about 3-4% lower than early June's 9,200 yuan level, with the pace of decline slowing in July. This suggests that the rapid drop driven by raw material cost collapse is largely over, and the market is entering a phase dominated by marginal supply-demand changes. For buyers, this is both a risk and an opportunity—the bottom signal is not yet confirmed, but further deep declines may be limited.
Upstream-Downstream Transmission Logic
The price trend of polyester FDY reflects the redistribution of profits between upstream PTA and downstream weaving. On the supply side, PTA availability has become more ample due to new capacity releases, coupled with a lower crude oil price center, weakening cost support—the main driver of the earlier FDY decline. On the demand side, weaving mill operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have dropped from around 70% in early July to about 65%, with grey fabric inventories accumulating, leading to hand-to-mouth purchasing of raw materials.
This combination of weak costs and tepid demand has squeezed FDY producers' processing margins to near breakeven. According to industry public data, cash flow profits for 150D FDY are around 100-200 yuan per ton, with some small and medium plants already loss-making. Thus, despite the seemingly stable quotes, actual transactions may involve hidden discounts or rebates; buyers should focus on real transaction prices rather than listed ones.
Regional Industrial Belt and Competitive Landscape
All quoting companies are located in Zhejiang Province, covering the two major polyester industrial clusters of Shaoxing and Hangzhou. Shaoxing, as an important national chemical fiber base, hosts companies like Juxing and Jiabao, while Hangzhou leverages giants such as Rongsheng and Tongkun for scale advantages. This geographic concentration means that capacity adjustments in the region quickly reflect in quotes, and the current convergence suggests a tacit price stabilization among enterprises to avoid a destructive price war.
However, the sustainability of this stabilization depends on two variables: first, the pace of new PTA plant startups—if supply loosens further, costs will continue to drag FDY; second, the recovery of downstream weaving orders—if pre-season stocking for the "golden September and silver October" starts early, a wave of replenishment could emerge. For now, demand in early August remains flat, but some traders are beginning to make trial inquiries in preparation for the peak season.