On August 4, 2026, the benchmark price of nylon FDY in the domestic market stood at 16,500 CNY/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month. This apparent calm, however, conceals a notable signal: over the past year, the price has swung from a low of 14,175 CNY/ton to a high of 19,950 CNY/ton, before settling at the current midpoint, with an amplitude exceeding 40%. The downward shift in the price center indicates that the industry is transitioning from a cost-driven upcycle to a demand-led rebalancing phase.
The Logic Behind the Price Data
Looking at the period from August 2025 to August 2026, the annual average price of nylon FDY was 15,709.97 CNY/ton. The current price is about 5% above this average but below the median of 17,062.5 CNY/ton. The gap from the top is 3,450 CNY/ton, while the gap from the bottom is 2,325 CNY/ton, showing a narrowing fluctuation range and cautious market sentiment. From an industrial perspective, nylon FDY prices are closely tied to upstream caprolactam costs and influenced by operating rates in downstream sectors such as nylon weaving, warp knitting, and weft knitting. The current price, sitting at the midpoint, reflects a temporary balance between supply and demand, neither a panic sell-off nor a strong rebound.
Transmission Between Upstream and Downstream, and Regional Responses
Beneath the flat price, profit distribution along the chain is quietly shifting. On the raw material side, caprolactam supply is loose, weakening cost support and limiting nylon makers' willingness to hold prices. On the demand side, major weaving clusters such as Shengze and Changle are receiving mainly short-term and small orders, with low acceptance of high-priced raw materials. This 'squeezed from both ends' pattern directly compresses the processing margins of nylon producers. For buyers, the current price is not the year's lowest, but given potential further declines in raw materials, the value of bulk restocking is not obvious. For exporters, they need to monitor exchange rate fluctuations and price differentials from Southeast Asian competitors, avoiding order losses due to rigid raw material prices.
Price Expectations and Operational Strategies
According to annual statistics, nylon FDY prices have fallen 17.3% from the peak, but still hold a 16.4% premium over the low. This suggests that if demand remains weak, prices could decline further; conversely, if the traditional 'golden September and silver October' peak season brings concentrated order releases, the current level may become a temporary bottom. Notably, the one-year position is at the midpoint, neither oversold nor overbought, making a technical rebound and a trend decline equally possible. Industry participants should closely watch downstream weaving operating rates, the price spread between polyester and nylon, and the indirect impact of crude oil prices on caprolactam costs. In summary, prices are likely to remain range-bound in the short term, and operational strategies should focus on need-based procurement and quick turnover.