A single yarn price holding flat for a year masks a deep tug-of-war across the chemical fiber chain. As of August 4, 2026, the benchmark price of nylon POY stood at 14,000 CNY/ton, unchanged from the start of the month. Over the past year, prices fluctuated between 11,300 and 16,950 CNY/ton, with the current level sitting at the mid-range. This 'neither up nor down' stance does not signal a lack of direction but rather a temporary stalemate between upstream and downstream forces.
Mid-Range Price: Supply-Demand Logic
Annual statistics show the average price of nylon POY over the past year was 12,921.58 CNY/ton, with a median of 14,125 CNY/ton. The current price is 2,950 CNY/ton below the peak and 2,700 CNY/ton above the trough. Operating in the middle ground suggests neither strong bullish expectations nor panic selling. For buyers, this offers rare predictability—but such stability could be disrupted by sudden feedstock movements.
From an industrial cluster perspective, major nylon POY capacity is concentrated in Xiaoshan (Zhejiang) and Changle (Fujian). Operating rates in these clusters directly influence supply elasticity. The current flat price correlates with stable plant operations and neutral inventory levels. However, downstream weaving mills have shortened order cycles, adopting a just-in-time purchasing strategy, which caps upward price momentum.
Cost-Demand Tug-of-War: Where Did Profits Go?
The direct feedstock for nylon POY is caprolactam, whose price fluctuations transmit cost pressures to POY pricing. Over the past year, caprolactam supply was relatively loose, with prices trending down. Yet POY did not follow suit, maintaining a mid-range level, implying some recovery in processing margins. However, weak demand from end-use apparel and home textiles limited the ability of POY price hikes to pass through to fabric stages, resulting in an imbalanced profit distribution across the chain.
A key judgment: the current 14,000 CNY/ton price may still yield slim profits for upstream raw material suppliers, but for midstream polymerization and spinning enterprises, processing spreads are near breakeven. This squeeze will accelerate industry consolidation—mills lacking scale advantages or differentiated products may be forced to cut operating rates or exit.
Event Anchor: Calm Before the Storm?
The benchmark price released on August 4, though a single-day figure, serves as a thermometer of market sentiment when viewed against the annual range. Notably, the current price is comparable to the same period last year, despite multiple fluctuations in energy prices (crude oil, coal) during the interim. This indicates that POY pricing is now more driven by its own supply-demand dynamics rather than unilateral external cost factors.
For foreign trade enterprises, this relatively stable pricing environment favors signing medium- to long-term orders, but vigilance is needed regarding exchange rate volatility and overseas demand shifts. Over the next three months, nylon POY is expected to fluctuate within a 13,500-14,500 CNY/ton range, unless sudden feedstock supply disruptions or policy interventions occur.