Over the past year, nylon POY prices have traced a sharp V-shaped curve between 11,300 and 16,950 CNY per ton. As of August 4, 2026, the benchmark price stands at 14,000 CNY/ton, exactly at the midpoint of this range. This position suggests neither panic nor optimism—it reflects a fragile balance between cost pressures and demand weakness.
Price Center Shifts Down, Support Becomes Visible
According to annual statistics, the current price is unchanged from the beginning of the month, with zero daily change, but the yearly average is only 12,921.58 CNY/ton, significantly lower than the current level. This implies that over the past 12 months, prices spent most of the time in lower territory, and the current price is actually about 8.3% above the annual average. The median value of 14,125 CNY/ton is only 125 CNY away, further confirming a typical mid-range consolidation pattern.
The bottom support is noteworthy. The lowest point of 11,300 CNY/ton occurred within the statistical period, and the current price is 2,700 CNY above that bottom. However, the top gap of -2,950 CNY indicates heavy resistance above—reaching the 16,950 CNY high again is unlikely in the near term. This 'ceiling and floor' pattern usually means the market is waiting for an external catalyst to break the deadlock.
Cost Transmission and Downstream Procurement Game
The main raw material for nylon POY is caprolactam, whose price fluctuations typically transmit to the nylon segment within two weeks. The current mid-range POY price reflects that the raw material side has not provided a clear direction—if caprolactam remains weak, POY is likely to follow; conversely, if raw materials rebound, the 14,000 CNY level could become the starting point for another round of price increases.
For downstream weaving enterprises, this price level is awkward. On one hand, the annual average of 12,922 CNY is lower than the current price, meaning orders locked in over the past year had lower costs. On the other hand, clear bottom support reduces the cost-effectiveness of waiting for a deeper drop. Some factories have begun small-batch replenishment, but large-scale stockpiling has not yet started, with a wait-and-see sentiment dominating the market.
From an industrial cluster perspective, nylon hubs in Changle, Fujian, and Yiwu, Zhejiang, maintain operating rates around 70%, with orders dominated by short-term and urgent needs. Long-term orders account for less than 30%. This order structure directly suppresses POY purchasing enthusiasm and explains why prices are stuck near 14,000 CNY without volume expansion.
Future Trends: Range Breakout Needs Catalysts
In the short term, nylon POY is likely to continue fluctuating within the 13,300-14,700 CNY range. An upward breakout requires two conditions: a trend rise in caprolactam prices, and an early start to the peak season in downstream apparel and home textiles. A downward break would require a sharp drop in crude oil prices or concentrated release of new capacity—neither signal is currently evident.
Notably, the current price level offers operational value for traders. Near the median, one could build long positions at the lower bound of the range while using futures hedging, and gradually reduce positions near the upper bound. However, it is crucial to remember that the annual average is below the current price, indicating a lower overall center than last year. Any rebound may face selling pressure from previous trapped positions.
For the industry, a mid-range POY price is not necessarily bad. It provides a reasonable profit distribution window for both upstream and downstream: upstream can avoid losses and production cuts, while downstream can maintain production at controllable costs. The real variable lies in the fourth quarter—if terminal consumption fails to recover as expected, prices may slide toward the lower bound; conversely, if demand exceeds expectations, the 15,000 CNY threshold could be challenged.