Acrylonitrile Jumps 5.25% in a Day, Signaling Divergence in the Chemical Fiber Chain

The commodity price data on August 4 reveals a warning signal: upstream raw materials and downstream finished products are moving in opposite directions. Acrylonitrile surged 5.25% in a single day, with a year-on-year increase of 51.05%; PTA followed with a 2.20% gain, up 28.10% year-on-year. Meanwhile, polyester filament FDY and POY fell 2.33% and 2.13% respectively. This pattern of rising upstream and falling downstream prices indicates that cost pass-through has broken down, and profits are being redistributed across the chain.

Background

Among the 17 monitored textile varieties, only 3 rose, 2 fell, and the rest remained flat. Acrylonitrile led the gains, jumping from 11,433.33 yuan/ton to 12,033.33 yuan/ton, a 5.25% daily increase. PTA rose from 6,027.00 to 6,159.83 yuan/ton, and polyester staple fiber edged up 0.41% to 7,591.29 yuan/ton. The decliners were polyester FDY and POY, dropping to 8,663.33 and 8,343.75 yuan/ton respectively.

Year-on-year, most varieties are higher than a year ago, but with wide dispersion: spandex is up 22.34%, polyester DTY up 17.19%, nylon POY up 16.18%, while raw silk is down 9.14%. This divergence shows that different sub-sectors face distinct supply-demand cycles and cost support. Acrylonitrile's surge is directly linked to tight supply, while the decline in polyester filament reflects weak end-demand and inventory build-up.

Industry Impact

The jump in acrylonitrile puts direct cost pressure on downstream acrylic fiber and ABS industries. Since acrylonitrile accounts for over 70% of acrylic fiber production costs, this increase will significantly squeeze acrylic fiber makers' margins. If acrylonitrile stays high, acrylic fiber producers may be forced to raise prices or cut output, eventually passing costs to apparel fabric links. However, current terminal apparel orders have not shown obvious recovery, making upward price transmission difficult.

The decline in polyester filament contrasts sharply with rising PTA. PTA is the main raw material for polyester filament; its price increase should raise polyester costs, but FDY and POY prices fell instead, indicating that mills are discounting to clear inventory amid weak demand. This scissors effect between rising raw material and falling product prices means processing margins are being compressed, and some small and medium enterprises may face losses.

For buyers, the current price divergence offers different bargaining power: polyester filament prices are weak, suitable for just-in-time procurement; acrylonitrile and its downstream products require caution about cost-driven price increases. For traders, the rise in PTA and acrylonitrile may trigger speculative stockpiling, but demand-side support is insufficient, and the risk of chasing highs is high.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Polyester FDY/POY prices are weak; consider increasing purchase volumes or signing quarterly contracts to lock in low-cost raw materials. - Acrylonitrile and downstream acrylic products have strong price increase expectations; purchase on demand to avoid panic stockpiling that raises inventory costs. - Monitor the price gap between PTA and polyester filament; if the gap widens, consider adjusting product mix to increase the use of staple fiber.

For Exporters - Include raw material price adjustment clauses in quotation contracts to cope with fluctuations in acrylonitrile, PTA, etc. - For polyester filament export orders, you may offer slight discounts to secure orders, but assess whether processing profits can cover costs. - Closely track exchange rates and raw material price trends, and use forward exchange locking and raw material hedging tools to manage risks.