On the DTY price list, 9300 yuan/ton coexists with 9650 yuan/ton, a gap of 350 yuan/ton that is not merely a regional difference but a direct projection of market participants' divergent expectations. On August 4, quotes from major chemical fiber enterprises in Zhejiang were released, and the low-elasticity yarn market is expressing differing understandings of supply-demand dynamics through price language during the traditional off-season.
Price Divergence: Leaders Hold Firm, Small Mills Concede
Specifically, Rongsheng Petrochemical and Zhejiang Jisi New Materials both quoted 9450 yuan/ton, Tongkun Group quoted 9650 yuan/ton, at the high end; Zhejiang Zhengkai, Kaisi Group, and Senkai New Materials concentrated at 9550 yuan/ton; while Zhejiang Juxing Chemical Fiber offered 9300 yuan/ton, the lowest of the day. For the same specification (150D/48F melt-spun, AA grade, semi-dull low-elasticity), the gap between highest and lowest quotes is 3.7%, a rarity in stable market conditions.
The divergence stems from differences in cost structures, inventory levels, and sales strategies. Leading enterprises, leveraging scale advantages and long-term contracts, tend to maintain price stability to protect brand premium; smaller mills, facing capital recovery pressure, opt for volume over price to liquidate inventory. This divergence is especially pronounced in the off-season, as incremental demand is limited, and competition shifts from quality to price.
Industrial Transmission: Feedstock Costs vs. Downstream Demand
The direct upstream of DTY is POY, which in turn is influenced by PTA and MEG trends. Recent fluctuations in international oil prices have led to minor adjustments in polyester feedstock prices, but cost-side changes have not been drastic. Therefore, current DTY quote differences primarily reflect demand signals. Weaving enterprises generally operate at low utilization rates, maintaining just-in-time purchasing for raw materials, unwilling to build large inventories, directly capping DTY price increases.
From a chain perspective, low DTY prices suppress upward momentum for POY and PTA, forming a negative feedback loop. For downstream weavers, low DTY means lower fabric costs, but it also signals insufficient terminal orders. Thus, while buyers enjoy low prices, they must also guard against inventory devaluation risks if prices continue to fall.
Market Outlook: Narrow Fluctuations Likely
In the short term, DTY prices are likely to fluctuate within a narrow range. On one hand, cost support prevents significant declines; on the other, weak demand limits upside. The 9300-9650 yuan/ton range may serve as the operating center for the coming period, unless external variables such as a crude oil surge or unexpected demand recovery emerge.
For market participants, the current price divergence is both a challenge and an opportunity. Buyers can leverage price gaps for comparison shopping, but must ensure supplier stability and product consistency; producers should focus on inventory turnover to avoid overstocking in the off-season.