Acrylonitrile surged 5.25% in a single day, with a year-on-year increase of 51.05%, while polyester FDY and POY fell 2.33% and 2.13% respectively on August 4. The price monitoring data reveals a clear signal: profit distribution across the chemical fiber chain is undergoing sharp restructuring, and upstream raw material gains are not effectively passing through to downstream filament segments, intensifying cost pressure on midstream processors.
Raw Material Strength: Acrylonitrile and PTA Lead Gains
Acrylonitrile jumped from 11,433.33 yuan/ton on August 3 to 12,033.33 yuan/ton, exceeding 5% daily growth—uncommon among textile bulk commodities. The 51.05% year-on-year surge indicates persistent supply tightness rather than short-term fluctuation. PTA rose 2.20% to 6,159.83 yuan/ton, up 28.10% year-on-year, confirming the overall strength of petrochemical-based raw materials. Polyester staple fiber only edged up 0.41%, while viscose staple fiber and spandex remained flat, showing that price hikes are concentrated in specific materials rather than widespread.
The strong raw material side is driven by multiple factors including crude oil price volatility, maintenance at some plants, and disruptions in international supply chains. For acrylic fiber producers using acrylonitrile, procurement costs have climbed sharply in a short period, squeezing gross margins if they cannot pass costs downstream. PTA's rise has knock-on effects on the polyester chain, but the simultaneous decline in polyester filament reveals weak demand at the consumer end.
Polyester Filament: Price Declines Signal Weak Demand and Inventory Pressure
In stark contrast to the hot raw material market, polyester FDY and POY fell 2.33% and 2.13% on August 4, dropping to 8,663.33 yuan/ton and 8,343.75 yuan/ton respectively. Despite year-on-year increases of 20.93% and 21.25%, the short-term declines reflect market resistance to high-priced raw materials. Polyester DTY remained flat at 9,500 yuan/ton, showing divergence between different specifications.
This divergence—raw materials rising while filament falls—typically indicates hindered cost pass-through. Downstream weaving mills are reluctant to purchase expensive raw materials, preferring to consume existing inventories or replenish on a need-only basis. Meanwhile, filament supply is relatively ample, and some factories may resort to price cuts to alleviate inventory pressure, further suppressing prices. For polyester plants, rising raw material costs combined with falling product prices compress profit margins from both sides, potentially leading to capacity utilization adjustments.
From a broader perspective, natural fiber products like cotton yarn and cotton remained stable, with moderate year-on-year increases (cotton +14.95%, cotton yarn 21S +5.11%), contrasting sharply with chemical fiber volatility. This suggests market attention is focused on petrochemical-based raw materials, while natural fibers are in relative equilibrium.
Industry Impact: Cost Pass-Through and Inventory Management Game
The current price divergence affects each segment of the chain unevenly. Upstream suppliers (e.g., acrylonitrile and PTA producers) benefit from higher prices with improved profitability; midstream processors (e.g., polyester filament and acrylic fiber plants) face dual pressure from rising costs and falling selling prices, narrowing margins; downstream weaving and garment enterprises become more cautious, slowing procurement and potentially dampening final orders.
For purchasers, the key strategy is dynamic inventory management. The strength of acrylonitrile and PTA may persist, but the decline in polyester filament also offers opportunities to stock up at lower prices. It is advisable to closely monitor upstream plant operations and crude oil trends, avoiding concentrated purchases at price peaks. Meanwhile, the pullback in filament prices may indicate short-term bargaining room, allowing for locking in low-cost supplies.
For foreign trade enterprises, volatile raw material prices directly impact the stability of export quotations. When signing long-term contracts, it is recommended to include price adjustment clauses to respond to raw material cost changes. Additionally, RMB exchange rate fluctuations affect import/export profits, necessitating robust currency risk management. Given acrylonitrile's year-on-year increase exceeding 50%, export orders involving acrylic products need careful cost calculations to avoid losses due to raw material inflation.