The commodity price monitoring data for August 4, 2026, sends a warning signal to the textile industry chain: acrylonitrile surged 5.25% in a single day, with a year-on-year increase of 51.05%; PTA rose 2.20% year-on-year to 28.10%. However, on the same day, polyester FDY and POY fell 2.33% and 2.13% respectively. The 'ice and fire' divergence between raw materials and finished products is not a simple price fluctuation but a typical sign of a broken cost transmission mechanism.
Background
The core of this price anomaly lies in acrylonitrile. On August 3, its quotation was 11,433.33 yuan/ton, and by August 4 it had risen to 12,033.33 yuan/ton, a single-day increase that set a recent record. Acrylonitrile is a key raw material for acrylic fiber, ABS resin, and carbon fiber; its price surge directly raises costs for downstream acrylic fiber and some engineering plastics. Notably, PTA, as the source of the polyester chain, rose 2.20% on the day, but polyester filament fell against the trend, indicating that the upward momentum in the polyester segment has not effectively transmitted to the yarn end.
Meanwhile, the cotton spinning chain remained stable: cotton, cotton yarn 21S, and cotton yarn 32S prices were flat compared with the previous trading day, with year-on-year increases ranging from 4.56% to 14.95%. Viscose staple fiber, spandex, and rayon yarn also held steady, with spandex up 22.34% year-on-year, showing sustained demand for stretch fabrics. Overall, among the 17 monitored commodities in the textile sector that day, only 3 rose and 2 fell, with the rest flat, indicating strong wait-and-see sentiment.
Industry Impact
The surge in acrylonitrile is not an isolated event; it reflects a tug-of-war between tight raw material supply and rigid downstream demand. For acrylic fiber producers, cost pressure has surged, but terminal yarn prices have not risen in tandem, meaning profit margins are being squeezed. If acrylonitrile prices remain high, acrylic fiber plants may be forced to cut production or raise prices, affecting the delivery schedule of winter fabric orders.
The decline in polyester filament prices reveals deeper concerns. Despite higher PTA costs, FDY and POY ex-factory prices have fallen instead of rising, indicating that polyester plants are offering discounts to clear inventory under pressure. This behavior directly reflects insufficient purchasing willingness among downstream weaving mills—fabric factories have limited orders on hand and resist high-priced raw materials. For foreign trade companies, this means that the price competitiveness of polyester fabrics may temporarily strengthen, but they should be wary of subsequent cost rebounds from raw materials.
From the perspective of industry chain transmission, the current chemical fiber segment presents a pattern of 'strong upstream, weak midstream, and stable downstream.' The strength of acrylonitrile and PTA is mainly driven by crude oil and supply-demand fundamentals, while the weakness of polyester filament stems from sluggish terminal consumption recovery. If this divergence persists, it will further squeeze the processing profits of polyester plants and may trigger a new round of production cuts. For buyers, increased raw material price volatility means higher inventory management difficulty; blindly chasing gains or over-waiting both carry risks.