On August 5, the polyester filament market in Shengze delivered a mixed report card: prices for most FDY and DTY specifications remained unchanged from the previous day, yet trading sentiment clearly cooled, with some mills even reporting 'quoted but not traded'. More notably, a few major polyester producers have begun to show slight downward adjustments in their POY quotes. This seemingly contradictory set of signals precisely reflects the delicate game between upstream and downstream players in the current polyester chain.
Price Stability vs. Weak Transactions
According to public quotes, from August 4 to 5, prices for FDY semi-dull products from major mills in Wujiang, Tongxiang, Xiaoshan, and Shaoxing remained almost entirely stable. For example, the 50D/24F grade was quoted at 9,700 yuan/ton by Xiaoshan Rongsheng, Taicang Shenjiu, Shaoxing Tiansheng, and Shenghong Chemical Fiber, while a major Wujiang mill quoted 9,800 yuan/ton. The DTY series was equally calm, with 75D/36F at 10,300 yuan/ton from Changshu Tehua and 10,400 yuan/ton from Wuxi Hengchang.
However, price stability does not imply market health. Industry data shows that overall transaction volumes were low, with trading described as 'sluggish' and 'scattered'. Most spinning mills chose to maintain their quotes to move inventory, prioritizing cash flow over price increases. This state of 'stable but undercurrent' indicates that both buyers and sellers are waiting for clearer directional signals.
How Oil Price Drops Transmit Through the Polyester Chain
The immediate trigger for this wait-and-see sentiment is the sharp decline in international oil prices. As the source of the polyester industry chain, crude oil price fluctuations transmit through the 'naphtha—PX—PTA/MEG—polyester' chain. A drop in overnight oil prices weakens cost support for upstream polyester raw materials, likely putting pressure on spot PTA and MEG prices, thereby reducing the pricing power of polyester filament.
For downstream texturizers and weavers, the loosening of cost-side support gives them room to bargain. Buyers generally expect further downside in raw material prices, so they deliberately slow restocking to avoid inventory losses. This cautious sentiment has spread across markets, further compressing transaction volumes.
Reasonable Inventory but Weak Expectations
Notably, most polyester mills currently hold 'reasonably low' filament inventories, with some varieties even in tight supply. This suggests there is no immediate pressure to offload inventory, and the foundation for sharp price declines is not solid. However, 'reasonable' is relative to previous high inventory levels. If downstream buyers continue to wait, inventories will accumulate passively, and mills' willingness to hold prices could quickly erode.
Historically, the polyester chain's price movements are driven more by expectations than by current supply-demand dynamics. The current market's key contradiction lies in the time lag between weakening cost support and the absence of visible inventory pressure. If oil prices continue to fall, PTX and MEG will follow, opening the door for polyester filament price cuts. Conversely, if oil prices stabilize and rebound, downstream restocking demand may be released intensively, making prices more likely to rise than fall.
Ripple Effects Across Industrial Clusters
Shengze, as an important chemical fiber textile cluster, its polyester filament prices are a bellwether for the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region. The current pattern of stable prices but weak transactions has triggered chain reactions in surrounding industrial belts. Local weaving enterprises in Wujiang maintain stable operating rates, but new orders are limited, making them more cautious in raw material procurement. Texturizers in Xiaoshan and Shaoxing are generally shortening their raw material inventory cycles, with some compressing stock levels to less than a week.
This synchronized contraction upstream and downstream will intensify the sluggish atmosphere in the short term, but it also accumulates energy for a rebound. Once downstream inventories deplete to low levels and oil prices show signs of stabilization, restocking demand may explode, driving a pulse of procurement.