US textile and apparel imports are undergoing a quiet but profound share reshuffle. In the first five months of 2026, total US imports fell 8.92% year-on-year to $39.13 billion, while China and India together lost approximately $4.5 billion in orders—a figure exceeding the overall net decline of the US market. On the surface, this appears to be weak demand, but in reality, the global sourcing map is being redrawn.
Imports dip then recover, destocking cycle nears end
In Q1, US textile and apparel imports fell 11.6% year-on-year to $21.4 billion, with four consecutive months of decline. However, May imports rebounded to $8.46 billion, up 2.8% year-on-year, signaling a halt to the downturn. This is not a full recovery in consumer demand but rather a sign that brand destocking is nearing completion and replenishment is beginning. For exporters, the most severe order vacuum may be over, but the slope of recovery still depends on US retail sentiment.
It is worth noting that this correction is not uniform. The loss of share by China and India contrasts sharply with ASEAN's accelerating penetration. ASEAN's share of US imports rose to 20.83%, making it the biggest winner in this round of adjustment. But this increment is not entirely from demand expansion—it is a result of sourcing shifts, as brands move orders from China and India to Southeast Asia under tariff and cost pressures.
Tariff new rules land, ASEAN dividend faces policy watershed
The new US tariff rules effective July 24 have poured cold water on Southeast and South Asian suppliers. Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and India are all placed in different tariff tiers, and the differentiated rates directly widen cost gaps among competitors. For a textile industry with razor-thin margins, every percentage point increase in tariffs could alter brand sourcing decisions.
In recent years, ASEAN has captured a large number of relocated orders thanks to labor cost and location advantages, but this dividend window is narrowing. Tariff policy uncertainty makes the "cost lowland" unstable. Brands will reassess the comprehensive cost-effectiveness of each origin, not just single manufacturing costs. This means Southeast Asian factories that rely on low tariff advantages may face order redistribution risks, while origins with complete industrial chain support can hold their ground amid volatility.
Implications for China's supply chain: intermediate goods export window remains
For Chinese foreign trade enterprises, these data send dual signals. On one hand, direct competition in the US apparel market remains intense, as evidenced by the loss of share by China and India. On the other hand, order relocation has not severed the export channel for Chinese fabrics, yarns, and other intermediate goods. Many garment factories relocated to Southeast Asia still rely on external fabric and accessory supplies, preserving survival space for China's upstream industry chain.
In fact, ASEAN's capacity expansion is often accompanied by deepening dependence on Chinese intermediate goods. Vietnam and Cambodia's textile mills still have low fabric self-sufficiency rates, so Chinese chemical fiber, cotton yarn, and high-end fabrics gain structural export support. If foreign trade enterprises shift their focus from "final garments" to "intermediate goods supporting," they may hedge against some order loss risks.
Outlook: supply chain will not be fixed in a single region
Whether the May rebound continues depends on US consumer confidence and brand inventory digestion. The tariff new rules will become the biggest variable in the coming months. Southeast and South Asian origins no longer enjoy stable procurement dividends, and competition among origins will intensify. The global textile supply chain will not simply settle in one region; compliance capability, cost control, and industrial chain support will jointly determine the future direction of each exporting economy. For Chinese suppliers, proactively adjusting product structures and binding with Southeast Asian factories' intermediate goods demand may be more resilient than merely chasing final orders.