While the industry's attention is fixed on the arrival of 'Golden September and Silver October' orders, a more telling signal has emerged: despite Zheng cotton futures weakening and mid-to-low count yarns being forced into price cuts, 60S and above high-count combed yarn ex-factory prices remain stable. This divergence is not accidental—it reveals that the cotton textile chain is shifting from 'volume expansion' to 'structural differentiation'.
Event Background
Since late July, the domestic cotton textile market has entered its traditional off-season, with Zheng cotton futures opening a weak correction channel. According to China Customs data, domestic textile and apparel sales remain sluggish, with most large and medium-sized cotton mills wrapping up existing orders. To maintain operating rates, mills have been dragged into price competition. Meanwhile, large Xinjiang mills maintain high operating rates of around 90%, but rotor-spun and mid-to-low count ring-spun yarns face difficulties, with slowing finished product sales and rising pressure on payment collection.
Downstream weaving plants, yarn dealers, and fabric/garment processors generally adopt low-inventory, thin-margin strategies, purchasing only on demand and avoiding stockpiling. This upstream-downstream game directly intensifies competition in the cotton yarn market, squeezing the profit space of small and medium-sized mills. Notably, the firmness of high-count yarns reflects that the terminal market's pursuit of quality is replacing price sensitivity.
Industry Impact
The cost pressure on the dyeing and printing sector is becoming a new variable in the chain. Statistics show that since the start of 2026, dye prices have cumulatively risen by over 65%, with dyeing auxiliaries and labor costs also rising. Forced by cost pressures, many dyeing plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have raised processing fees—large dyeing factories in Shaoxing increased knitting fabric dyeing fees by RMB 0.5 per kg and woven fabric by RMB 0.2 per meter.
Though the fee increases appear modest, against the backdrop of weak terminal consumption and intense price competition, weaving and garment enterprises cannot quickly absorb upstream cost pressures, hindering cost transmission downstream. This means dyeing price hikes may further squeeze weaving profits, potentially diverting orders to lower-cost regions. For buyers, this is both a challenge and an opportunity to reassess supply chain layouts.
From a holistic perspective, the current predicament stems from the combination of insufficient demand and overcapacity. Fluctuating cotton prices, low-price impacts from inland mills, and cooling purchase intentions from coastal weaving mills and intermediaries all intertwine. Yet the firmness of high-count yarns suggests that high-end, differentiated products retain resilience, offering a transformation direction for enterprises mired in involution.