Over the past year, the benchmark price of nylon POY has completed a full cycle between 11,300 and 16,950 CNY per ton, finally settling at 14,000 CNY, almost exactly at the midpoint of its annual range. Behind this seemingly flat figure lies a deep contest between capacity expansion and sluggish terminal demand, as well as a quiet reallocation of profits across the supply chain.
The Logic Behind Mid-Range Prices
From August 2025 to August 2026, the annual average price of nylon POY was 12,932 CNY/ton, with a median of 14,125 CNY. The current price is only 125 CNY away from that median. This narrow fluctuation does not signal market failure but rather a rough balance between supply and demand.
On the supply side, new caprolactam and polymerization capacity released over the past two years has kept the market in a state of ample supply, with operating rates around 70%. On the demand side, downstream weaving and apparel export growth have slowed, while domestic consumption recovery has been modest, leading to just-in-time purchasing and reduced speculative stockpiling.
Notably, the high of 16,950 CNY occurred in the fourth quarter of last year, driven by rising pure benzene costs. The low of 11,300 CNY appeared in the first quarter of this year, when the post-Spring Festival demand vacuum and inventory pressure pushed prices down. Since then, the market has been in a narrow range, with insufficient momentum in either direction.
Imbalanced Profit Distribution Along the Chain
At the current price of 14,000 CNY, polymerization plants face cash costs of approximately 13,500–13,800 CNY, leaving margins razor-thin or even at breakeven. Downstream nylon filament and weaving mills, unable to pass on higher costs due to weak final product pricing, prefer to purchase on a hand-to-mouth basis.
This imbalance in profit distribution creates a market with a clear ceiling and floor: cost support prevents sharp declines, but weak demand caps upside potential. For buyers, this means lower price volatility but limited bargaining room. For producers, it necessitates more careful inventory and production management to avoid passive stock accumulation during price stagnation.
Regional Divergence in Industrial Clusters
Geographically, nylon industrial clusters in Changle, Fujian, and Xiaoshan, Zhejiang, show divergent operating rates. Changle, focused on warp knitting, enjoys relatively stable orders with operating rates above 80%. In Xiaoshan, however, some small and medium enterprises have cut production due to tight cash flows. This divergence highlights structural differences in downstream demand and reminds industry participants to monitor the health of their specific customer segments.
Future Outlook and Operational Strategies
Looking ahead to the second half of the year, nylon POY prices are likely to remain range-bound. On one hand, the pace of new capacity commissioning may slow, easing supply pressure. On the other hand, autumn/winter fabric orders could provide a temporary demand boost, but are unlikely to trigger a sustained uptrend. The expected trading range is 13,500–14,500 CNY/ton.
For textile companies, the current mid-range price suggests neither excessive pessimism nor blind chasing of uptrends. A prudent approach is to lock in raw materials based on order cycles and use futures or forward contracts to hedge price fluctuations.
For Purchasers - Procure in batches according to order needs to avoid tying up capital in large inventories. - Monitor pure benzene and caprolactam price trends; if feedstock costs drop significantly, consider delaying replenishment. - When signing long-term contracts with suppliers, include price adjustment mechanisms to cope with range-bound fluctuations.
For Exporters - Pay attention to RMB exchange rate movements; with prices at mid-range, currency fluctuations have a greater impact on export margins. - Southeast Asian nylon capacity is gradually expanding; assess competitors' pricing strategies when quoting. - Use export credit insurance and forward settlement tools to lock in order profits.
Price stagnation is not market silence but a necessary pain during a shift in growth drivers. Those who can see structural changes amid the calm will gain an edge in the next cycle.