The polyester filament market has shown a clear price-cut signal: Rongsheng Petrochemical (including Shengyuan) lowered its polyester POY quotes by 50-100 yuan/ton, with semi-dull POY 75/36 at 8650 yuan/ton and 150/48 at 8250 yuan/ton. This is the second time a core producer has released a price-easing signal recently, reflecting a subtle shift in supply-demand dynamics—from a tight balance to a looser one, with producers showing a stronger willingness to reduce inventory.
Background
As a core domestic polyester filament producer, Rongsheng's price adjustment carries a bellwether significance. The cut covers multiple POY specifications, and although the magnitude is modest, the signal is clear: in the absence of a visible demand recovery, producers are choosing to cut prices to generate cash flow. According to industry data, POY spot inventories have risen for three consecutive weeks, with some mainstream plants holding over 20 days of inventory, near the year's high.
The direct driver is a simultaneous weakening on both supply and demand sides. On the supply side, previously idled units have restarted, pushing the industry operating rate back above 80%, increasing market supply. On the demand side, downstream weaving mills lack new orders, purchasing only on a need-to-basis, with little desire to stock up. This 'supply up, demand flat' pattern forces producers to balance production and sales through price adjustments.
Notably, this cut is not an isolated event. Other mainstream polyester filament producers have also offered discounts around 50 yuan/ton recently, indicating the industry is entering an active de-stocking cycle. For buyers, this suggests the price center may continue to move down in the short term, but the downside could be limited since raw material prices for PTA and MEG remain relatively firm, providing cost support.
Industry Impact
From a supply chain perspective, the POY price cut will directly compress the profit expectations of downstream texturizing and weaving segments. Texturizing mills holding high-priced raw material inventories face the risk of devaluation, while new order quotes may follow the downward trend. For weaving enterprises, lower raw material costs help improve immediate profits, but they must guard against customer price pressure—end brands often do not raise purchase prices due to lower raw material costs; instead, they demand even lower transaction prices.
The futures market reaction is also noteworthy. The spot price cut signal strengthens the bearish expectation, pressuring related futures contracts. This means some traders may use futures hedging to offset the risk of spot inventory devaluation, adding selling pressure on the exchange. For procurement contracts that rely on futures pricing, both buyers and sellers need to reassess basis risk to avoid additional costs from a widening basis.
From a regional industrial cluster perspective, polyester filament capacity is mainly concentrated in Tongxiang and Xiaoshan in Zhejiang, and the Hangzhou Bay area where Rongsheng is located is a core production zone. After the news, inquiries in downstream fabric markets such as Shengze and Keqiao increased, but actual transactions remained mostly need-based. Some traders began to test restocking, believing prices are near a short-term bottom, but more companies chose to wait for clearer signs of stabilization.