On August 6, Rongsheng (including Shengyuan) Petrochemical, a core domestic polyester filament producer, cut its POY quotations by 50-100 yuan/ton. After the adjustment, semi-dull POY 75/36 was quoted at 8,650 yuan/ton, 150/48 at 8,250 yuan/ton, 300/96 at 8,400 yuan/ton, and black yarn 300/96 at 8,850 yuan/ton. This price signal is not an isolated event but a direct reflection of the loosening supply-demand balance in the polyester filament market, which will substantially impact the procurement pace of downstream weaving mills and traders.
Supply-Demand Logic Behind the Price Adjustment
The core driver of this price cut is the loose spot supply-demand situation. On the supply side, leading enterprises like Rongsheng maintain high operating rates, resulting in ample market circulation; on the demand side, downstream weaving mills lack sufficient orders, and procurement is mainly for essential needs, leading to rising inventory pressure. Although the reduction of 50-100 yuan/ton is not drastic, it sends a clear signal of price-for-volume inventory clearance, indicating that enterprises prefer to lower prices to move goods rather than hold firm on price floors.
For buyers, this price cut implies a downward shift in raw material cost centers, theoretically benefiting profit margin recovery. However, actual procurement decisions require caution—if supply-demand looseness persists, prices may fall further, and early bulk stocking could face inventory depreciation risks. Historical experience shows that consecutive price adjustments by leading enterprises often indicate a phased downward cycle rather than a one-off adjustment.
Transmission Effects on Futures Market and Supply Chain
The bearish transmission from spot price cuts to the futures market has already materialized. Relevant contracts have been under pressure after the adjustment news, with market expectations of weakness intensifying. This futures-spot linkage reflects traders' recalibration of fundamental pricing: when core producers proactively cut prices, it implies their short-term supply-demand assessment is bearish, prompting futures markets to follow suit.
From a supply chain perspective, the polyester filament price cut will transmit downstream. Weaving mills will see reduced raw material costs, potentially alleviating some profit pressure, but it may also trigger customer demands for lower finished product prices, squeezing selling prices. More critically, during a price downtrend, downstream players generally adopt a wait-and-see stance, delaying order releases and further aggravating demand weakness. This negative feedback loop is the main risk facing the current market.
Regional Industrial Belt and Procurement Strategy Adjustments
As an important chemical fiber production base, Rongsheng's location in Xiaoshan, Zhejiang, and the surrounding areas, its price adjustments often serve as a bellwether for the entire East China market. Procurement managers in textile clusters such as Shengze and Keqiao typically reference such quotes to adjust their inventory strategies. After this adjustment, more polyester plants are expected to follow suit with price cuts in the short term to maintain market share, intensifying regional price competition.
For procurement managers, it is not advisable to blindly chase falling prices or panic sell at this juncture. It is recommended to closely monitor crude oil and PTA price trends—as the main raw materials for polyester filament, their cost changes will determine the magnitude and sustainability of the price decline. Additionally, assess the certainty of your own orders and delivery cycles: if hand-held orders are sufficient, moderate replenishment at lower prices is acceptable; if orders are unclear, maintaining low inventory operations is more prudent.