The commodity price data on August 6 reveals a critical signal: cotton and chemical fibers are moving in opposite directions. Cotton rose 0.87% in a single day, with a year-on-year gain of 16.55%, while polyester FDY, PTA, and polyester staple fiber fell by 0.39%, 0.18%, and 0.14% respectively. This divergence is not accidental but a direct reflection of changes in cost transmission and demand structure along the industrial chain. For buyers and factories, the widening price gap means significantly higher cost control difficulty, requiring a reassessment of procurement strategies and inventory management.
Background
The daily monitoring covered 15 major textile varieties, with only cotton registering a gain, most others flat, and three chemical fiber raw materials declining. Year-on-year data shows cotton's increase far exceeds other varieties, while acrylonitrile rose 51.05%, spandex 22.34%, and polyester POY 20.56%, indicating most raw materials remain at historically high levels. However, raw silk fell 9.14% year-on-year, the only significant decline, highlighting fundamental differences across fiber categories.
Cotton's strength is closely tied to global supply-side disruptions, with weather conditions and planting area adjustments in major producing regions continuously affecting market expectations. In contrast, the decline in chemical fiber chains stems from the dual squeeze of crude oil price fluctuations and weak downstream demand. As the core polyester raw material, PTA's weakness directly lowers cost support for polyester filament and staple fiber, while insufficient recovery in apparel orders makes it difficult for chemical fiber plants to pass on costs downstream.
Industry Impact
The divergence in raw material prices has distinct structural transmission characteristics along the textile chain. Cotton textile enterprises benefit from the premium brought by rising cotton prices but also face higher procurement costs, with profit margins depending on the synchronous adjustment of cotton yarn prices. On that day, cotton yarn 21S and 32S prices remained flat, not following cotton's rise, implying compressed margins for cotton spinners.
Chemical fiber enterprises face more severe challenges. The simultaneous decline in polyester FDY, PTA, and polyester staple fiber reflects the entire polyester chain in a destocking phase. Polyester filament prices are up over 20% year-on-year, but daily weakness suggests limited market acceptance of high-priced raw materials, with downstream weavers preferring to wait or purchase on demand. This sentiment may further transmit upstream to PX and crude oil, forming a negative feedback loop.
For foreign trade enterprises, raw material price fluctuations directly impact the competitiveness of export quotations. The widening gap between cotton and chemical fibers may shift some orders from cotton-based products to chemical fiber products, or vice versa, depending on price sensitivity and brand preferences in end markets. Meanwhile, fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate and shipping costs require foreign trade enterprises to be more cautious when locking in raw material prices, avoiding erosion of order profits due to short-term raw material volatility.