Global merchandise trade in Q1 2026 showed a complex picture of 'volume and value rising together' but with sharp regional disparities. According to a joint monitoring report by the WTO and UNCTAD, seasonally adjusted trade volume rose 1.9% quarter-on-quarter and 3.2% year-on-year, while trade value increased 2% quarter-on-quarter and 11% year-on-year. This growth is particularly notable given the high base created by North America's front-loading of imports in Q1 2025 due to tariff expectations, underscoring the resilience of global goods trade beyond market consensus.
Regional divergence: Asia's engine vs. Middle East's slump
The core driver of this growth is Asia. In Q1, Asian import and export volumes surged 14.6% and 12.9% year-on-year respectively, with quarter-on-quarter growth also strong—exports up 5.5% and imports up 7.2%. This is not driven by a single market; China, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, and Taiwan all contributed, with cross-border demand for AI chips, smart hardware, and supporting equipment forming a combined force. The completeness of the electronics manufacturing supply chain has become a moat for Asia's trade growth.
In stark contrast, the Middle East suffered from persistent geopolitical conflicts. Import volume fell 9.7% year-on-year, while exports plunged 11.9%, making it the only region globally with double-digit declines in both metrics. Institutions predict that supply chain and logistics disruptions in the region will not ease significantly in Q2, continuing to drag down cargo turnover efficiency. For foreign trade enterprises, this implies higher risks of order fulfillment in related markets.
Diverging US-Europe, energy regions awaiting recovery
North America showed an imbalanced pattern of 'hot exports, cold imports': export volume grew 7% year-on-year, but imports fell 10.7%, signaling a clear contraction in domestic demand. Import value dropped 7%, the steepest decline among major regions. Europe, meanwhile, is stuck in a stagflation-like state of 'weak exports, slight import growth': export volume down 2.6%, imports up only 0.6%, dragged by sluggish external orders for manufacturing.
South America, Africa, and the CIS region saw weak short-term export momentum, with quarter-on-quarter export changes ranging from +0.3% to -7.4%. However, over a longer horizon since early 2023, South America's cumulative export growth is 22.5% and imports 24.5%, both second only to Asia. Africa's cumulative import growth of 25% ranks first globally. With oil-exporting countries increasing output to fill the gap left by the Middle East, institutions expect a rebound in exports from these resource-based regions in Q2.
Headline economies and structural insights
In value terms, Asia's export value surged 20% year-on-year, leading globally; Africa and Central-South America each rose 14%; the Middle East and CIS, both energy exporters, saw slight declines of 1%. On the import side, Asia grew 22% and Africa 15%, while North America fell 7%.
Among the top five export economies, South Korea led with a 38.4% nominal export growth, followed by Hong Kong at 38.3%, the US at 15.2%, China at 14.7%, and the EU at a slower 9.2%. On imports, except for the US's 13.6% decline, Hong Kong surged 44.8%, the UK rose 28%, China increased 23%, and the EU grew 11.4%.
These figures reveal a key trend: AI digital industries are reshaping global trade composition, with electronics manufacturing and smart hardware becoming new growth poles. For textile foreign trade enterprises, although the AI supply chain is not a direct downstream, the heightened trade activity in capital and intermediate goods within Asia may indirectly affect demand for industrial inputs like fabrics and accessories.