Shaoxing's large circular machine operating rate has fallen to 39.81%, down 2.77% month-on-month and 5.05% year-on-year—this is the latest reading from industry monitoring as of August 6. The number itself is not surprising, but the nearly five-percentage-point year-on-year gap shows that the current weakness in weaving is more than just seasonal fluctuation. High temperatures and insufficient orders are intertwined, forcing the supply chain to reassess procurement rhythms for the second half of the year.
Industrial Load Divergence: Two Worlds for Large and Small Mills
Looking at the operating structure, large-scale weaving factories still have undelivered orders, with utilization rates generally at 50-70%, while small and medium circular knitting mills show significantly lower loads, with some having suspended production. This divergence means that large mills rely on existing orders to maintain operations but are cautious about taking new orders, while small mills simply avoid risks by shutting down. For yarn suppliers, this indicates a changing demand structure—large mills prioritize stable quality and delivery cycles for restocking, while small mills almost withdraw from short-term purchasing, compressing overall transaction volumes.
Autumn/Winter Order Negotiation: Geopolitical Variables Amplify Resistance
Current market negotiations focus on some autumn/winter apparel orders, but volatile geopolitical situations have significantly increased resistance to large order signing. Brands and traders generally adopt a "multiple small-lot" ordering strategy, breaking long orders into short ones to avoid delivery and cost fluctuation risks. This order fragmentation directly transmits to the yarn side: spot negotiation centers for cotton and polyester yarns remain under pressure, and futures markets are bearish due to weak demand expectations. For spinners, this means production planning needs to be more flexible and inventory management more precise, otherwise they risk falling into the dilemma of "afraid to take orders, yet stopping lines without orders."
Price Expectations and Procurement Strategy: Rebalancing Under Weak Supply and Demand
Data shows that the decline in weaving operating rates has persisted for several weeks, with the year-on-year gap widening, indicating that the recovery point for downstream demand may be postponed. The "bullish/bearish scores" for cotton and polyester yarns are both -1, reflecting pessimistic short-term price expectations. However, it is worth noting that this pessimism may be partially priced in. If autumn/winter orders are released later or geopolitical tensions ease, prices could rebound. Therefore, buyers should avoid excessive short-term chasing and instead focus on marginal changes in operating rates and order signing rhythms as entry signals.