While most cotton yarn varieties are forced to cut prices to move inventory during the off-season, 60S and higher combed yarn remains remarkably stable. This divergence is not accidental but a microcosm of the intensifying differentiation within the cotton textile chain during the demand trough. According to China Customs data, Zheng cotton futures have continued to correct since July, yet high-count yarn ex-factory prices have barely moved, indicating that pricing power in the premium segment has not weakened despite the off-season.
Temperature Differences in the Off-Season
Entering July, the off-season characteristics of the domestic cotton textile market have become more pronounced, with most large and medium-sized enterprises finishing their earlier orders. To maintain operating rates, many spinning mills have been drawn into price-cutting competition, with air-jet and medium-to-low count ring-spun yarns bearing the brunt. However, high-count combed and carded yarns remain firm, with stable prices, highlighting the buffering effect of product mix against market risks. This divergence implies that traditional mills relying solely on scale face greater profit compression, while those capable of producing high-count yarn possess stronger counter-cyclical resilience.
Regionally, Xinjiang's large mills maintain high operating rates of around 90%, but finished product sales have slowed, and payment recovery pressure has risen. The low-price impact from inland mills, coupled with weakening purchasing intentions from coastal fabric mills and intermediaries, means that Xinjiang's cost advantages are difficult to convert into cash flow during the off-season. This reflects that even regions with significant cost benefits cannot remain immune when demand is insufficient.
Rising Dyeing Costs and Transmission Blockage
The downstream dyeing and printing sector is also under pressure. Industry public data shows that since the beginning of 2026, dye prices have cumulatively risen by over 65%, with auxiliary agents and labor costs also climbing. Forced by cost pressures, many dyeing factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have raised processing fees, with large Shaoxing dye houses increasing charges by RMB 0.5 per kg for knitted fabrics and RMB 0.2 per meter for woven fabrics. While seemingly modest, weak terminal consumption and low-price competition make it difficult for weaving and garment enterprises to absorb these increases, blocking cost transmission downstream.
This blockage implies that the dyeing price hike is more cost-push than demand-pull, potentially further squeezing weaving profits in the short term and even causing order delays or reductions. For buyers, dyeing fee increases may trigger chain reactions in fabric quotations, necessitating early assessment of supply chain cost changes.
Expectations and Uncertainties for the Golden Peak
The entire industry is now waiting for the "golden September and silver October" orders to materialize. However, historical patterns suggest that peak-season demand may be delayed or fall short of expectations, especially amid increased macroeconomic uncertainty. The game between Xinjiang and inland mills, the firmness of high-count yarn versus the weakness of medium-to-low count, will all be tested in the peak-season orders. If demand recovers, high-count yarn may lead the rebound; if not, internal competition may persist.