Global merchandise trade value surged 11% year-on-year in Q1 2026, but this headline figure masks stark regional divergence. Asia posted double-digit volume growth driven by AI supply chain investment, while the Middle East plunged amid geopolitical tensions. For textile exporters, these shifts signal changing order flows and supply chain realignment.
Regional Divergence in the Numbers
Seasonally adjusted, global trade volume rose 1.9% quarter-on-quarter and 3.2% year-on-year; trade value grew 2% quarter-on-quarter and 11% year-on-year. Notably, the 2025 base was inflated by front-loading in North America ahead of tariff hikes, so the positive growth underscores resilience beyond expectations.
Asia was the standout, with import and export volumes up 14.6% and 12.9% year-on-year, respectively, and export volume up 5.5% quarter-on-quarter. Growth was broad-based across China, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, and Taiwan, fueled by AI chips, smart hardware, and related equipment. In contrast, Middle East import and export volumes fell 9.7% and 11.9%, with pressure expected to persist into Q2.
North America saw export volume rise 7% but imports drop 10.7%, signaling weak domestic demand. Europe's export volume fell 2.6% while imports edged up 0.6%, reflecting soft external orders. South America, Africa, and the CIS saw weak short-term exports, yet since early 2023, South America's cumulative exports and imports have grown 22.5% and 24.5%, respectively, and Africa's imports have risen 25%, indicating long-term potential.
Implications for Textile Trade
In value terms, Asia's exports jumped 20% year-on-year and imports 22%, leading globally. Africa and South-Central America each saw export value growth of 14%. Among top exporters, South Korea led with 38.4% growth, followed by Hong Kong at 38.3%, the US at 15.2%, China at 14.7%, and the EU at 9.2%. On the import side, China grew 23%, Hong Kong 44.8%, while the US fell 13.6% – the steepest decline among major markets.
For textiles, these trends mean stronger demand for technical and functional fabrics linked to electronics supply chains in Asia. North American import contraction pressures apparel and home textile exporters relying on that market. Weak European exports signal softer demand for textile goods. The Middle East's decline disrupts transshipment routes, pushing orders toward alternative markets like South America and Africa, which offer long-term growth potential.