While the entire cotton textile chain struggles in the off-season, one anomaly stands out: the ex-factory price of 60S and higher combed yarn has remained almost unchanged. This is not accidental but a rare signal of certainty after deep games along the chain.
The Off-Season Predicament: Pressure from Cotton to Dyeing
Since July, the off-season features of the domestic cotton textile market have become more pronounced. Zhengzhou cotton futures started a weak correction, lacking rigid demand support. Most large and medium-sized cotton spinning mills are finishing earlier orders; to maintain operating rates, they are forced into price-cutting competition. According to industry public data, many inland cotton yarn factories have introduced discounts, but high-count yarn prices remain firm, while mid-to-low-end products are the hardest hit.
This divergence is not a simple quality premium but a true reflection of supply and demand structure. High-count yarn has higher capacity concentration and technical barriers, giving it stronger bargaining power even in weak demand. For buyers, this means that during the off-season, price fluctuation risk for high-end yarn is much lower than for mid-to-low-end products.
Meanwhile, large mills in Xinjiang maintain a high operating rate of 90%, but finished product sales have slowed, and the risk of payment collection has risen. Rotor-spun yarn and mid-to-low-count ring-spun yarn are struggling, while coastal weaving mills and intermediaries are less willing to purchase. The chain shows a typical pattern of 'upstream holding prices, midstream making concessions, downstream waiting.'
Cost Transmission Blocked: The Real Impact of Dyeing Price Hikes
The dyeing sector faces similar cost pressure. Since the beginning of 2026, dye prices have risen cumulatively by over 65%, with auxiliaries and labor costs also climbing. Forced by costs, many dyeing factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have raised processing fees. In Shaoxing, large dye houses increased knitting dyeing fees by 0.5 yuan per kilogram and woven fabric by 0.2 yuan per meter.
At first glance, the increase seems limited, but the transmission chain is not smooth. Weak terminal consumption and low-price competition make it hard for weaving and garment enterprises to quickly absorb upstream costs, leaving the pressure stuck in the middle. This means dyeing mills' profit margins are further squeezed, while downstream buyers face a dilemma: accept higher prices or delay orders.
From an industrial belt perspective, Shaoxing's dyeing fee adjustment often serves as a barometer. The small adjustment indicates that when peak-season orders arrive, dyeing fees may still have room to rise. For apparel brands and traders, locking in dyeing capacity in advance may be more important than bargaining.
Waiting for 'Golden September and Silver October': A Window of Opportunity
The entire industry is waiting for the 'golden September and silver October' orders to land. But notably, the release rhythm this year may be later than in previous years. Downstream players generally adopt low-inventory, thin-margin strategies, purchasing on demand and avoiding stockpiling, which makes it difficult for upstream to plan production based on demand forecasts.
For spinning mills, maintaining operating rates during the off-season is a strategic choice. Once stopped, the cost of rehiring and re-equipping is extremely high. Therefore, even if losing money, most mills still choose to keep running, exacerbating oversupply of mid-to-low-end yarn. But this also means that once peak-season demand kicks in, price rebounds for mid-to-low-end yarn may be faster than expected.
In summary, the cotton textile chain is under triple pressure: weak demand, rising costs, and high inventories. The weak correction of Zhengzhou cotton is hard to reverse in the short term, but the firmness of high-count yarn provides a differentiation logic: products with true technical barriers can still hold price lines in the off-season.