As Zhengzhou cotton futures continue to weaken in the off-season, every link of the cotton textile chain is reassessing its pricing power. A notable contrast emerges: medium and low-count yarns are forced to cut prices to move inventory, while 60S and above high-count combed and carded yarns maintain stable ex-factory prices. This divergence is not accidental but a result of product structure, capacity distribution, and demand tiers, offering clear signals for buyers to adjust strategies during the off-season.
Market Divergence: High-Count Yarn Strength vs. Medium-Low Count Glut
Since July, the off-season characteristics of the domestic cotton textile market have become more pronounced, with most large and medium-sized enterprises finishing their previous orders. To maintain operating rates, many inland spinning mills have introduced discounts, making medium-low count ring-spun and rotor-spun yarns the hardest hit. In contrast, high-count yarns, especially 60S and above combed and carded varieties, keep prices stable, showing superior resilience compared to medium-low end products.
This divergence stems from supply-demand structures: high-count yarn production is concentrated with high technical barriers, and downstream clients are mostly high-end fabric and branded apparel manufacturers, ensuring relatively stable orders. Meanwhile, medium-low count yarns suffer from overcapacity and homogeneity, lacking bargaining power in the off-season. Public industry data shows that Xinjiang large mills maintain a high operating rate of 90%, but finished product sales have slowed, and payment recovery risks rise, further intensifying concerns about cutthroat competition.
Cost Transmission Blocked: The Pricing Dilemma in Dyeing and Finishing
The downstream dyeing and finishing sector faces another pressure. Since the beginning of 2026, dye prices have continued to rise, with an overall increase exceeding 65% by late July, while dyeing auxiliaries and labor costs also climbed. Forced by cost pressures, many dyeing mills in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have raised processing fees: in Shaoxing, large dyeing factories increased charges by 0.5 yuan per kilogram for knitted fabrics and 0.2 yuan per meter for woven fabrics.
However, the seemingly modest fee hikes are difficult for weaving and garment enterprises to absorb quickly due to weak end-consumption and industry-wide low-price competition. The blocked cost transmission implies that dyeing mills' price increases are more of a 'hard carry' than a smooth pass-through. This reflects the severely imbalanced profit distribution across the chain: upstream raw material volatility, midstream yarn price wars, and downstream sluggish demand, leaving dyeing as a 'cost depression' in between.
Industry Impact: Strategy Adjustments in the Off-Season Game
For cotton textile enterprises, the off-season is not just about waiting but also a window to adjust product mix and customer strategies. The firmness of high-count yarns indicates that structural opportunities persist even when total demand shrinks. Companies that have proactively positioned in high-count and differentiated products are gaining stronger risk resilience than their peers.
For buyers and traders, the current environment offers opportunities to renegotiate prices and payment terms. The price reduction space for medium-low count yarns may not have bottomed out, but the bargaining room for high-count yarns is limited. Additionally, the rise in dyeing fees will inevitably transmit to fabric and garment links, so buyers should reserve cost buffers in quotations to avoid margin erosion later.