On August 8, disperse dye products saw another broad price increase, with Disperse Black 300% approaching CNY 30,000 per ton. This marks the third wave of hikes after two rounds in July, yet the textile market remains in its off-season, creating a stark contrast between sluggish demand and rising dye prices. Behind this price signal lies a fundamental shift in the intermediate supply structure, not simple seasonal speculation.
Background
The engine of this price surge is on the raw material side. The reductive material (2-amino-4-acetaminoanisole), an irreplaceable intermediate for black, blue, and purple disperse dyes, surged from CNY 25,000 per ton at the end of 2025 to CNY 70,000-100,000 per ton by March 2026, an increase of nearly 300% within months; after mid-year, it stabilized at a historical high of CNY 100,000 per ton. Meanwhile, H-acid, a key intermediate for reactive dyes, faces supply tightness as environmental regulations have eliminated outdated capacity. Current effective capacity is less than 60,000 tons, with a perennial supply gap exceeding 10%. The simultaneous price hikes of these two key raw materials impose a dual cost squeeze on dye manufacturers.
Supply-side rigidity is the deeper reason for the price's upward bias. Domestic compliant capacity for the reductive material is only 50,000-60,000 tons, highly concentrated among three companies: Zhejiang Longsheng, Runtu, and Ningxia Zhongxin. The industry has minimal room for expansion, and supply elasticity is weak. Once downstream demand picks up even slightly, the supply-demand imbalance quickly pushes up prices. This means dye prices are no longer demand-driven but determined by raw material supply bottlenecks, reshaping the cost transmission mechanism across the chain.
Industrial Impact
Midstream dyeing plants are caught in a dilemma. The average operating rate across the country is only around 60%, with scarce large orders and most work being samples or small batches. Revenue is already under pressure, and the near-doubling of dye costs rapidly erodes profit margins. More critically, the industry's supply-demand logic has fundamentally changed: the spot market for conventional fabrics is growing, small orders are being consolidated, and order resources are concentrating among major customers. Most dyeing plants have homogeneous production processes and lack differentiated competitiveness, gradually shifting the market to a buyer's market. Facing large customers, dyeing plants find it difficult to raise processing fees independently; only a few high-end fabric processors with stable quality and premium customer bases can adjust fees independently.
Some dyeing plants have already issued notices to raise processing fees to offset costs, but acceptance is low during the off-season. Most small and medium plants must absorb the difference themselves, and sustained losses are unsustainable. This low-price model cannot last. In September and October, the industry will enter the traditional stocking season, with a surge in downstream garment and foreign trade orders. The accumulated cost pressure from dyes and intermediates will transmit down the chain. By then, a comprehensive increase in dyeing fees will become an industry-wide choice, and fabric mills, apparel brands, and end consumers will all bear the cost.
For buyers, this means procurement strategies must shift from "following the market" to "anticipatory management." The financial nature of dye prices is strengthening, and the pattern of "off-season not weak, peak season stronger" may become the norm. Locking in supply in advance and building safety stock is more practical than ever. For foreign trade companies, dyeing fee increases will directly impact quotations and profits; incorporating price adjustment clauses into contracts becomes crucial to mitigate cost risks.