On August 8, disperse dye prices rose again across the board, with Disperse Black 300% approaching 30,000 yuan per ton. This marked another round of increases after two rounds in July. The core driver is not demand recovery but the runaway cost of upstream intermediates. For buyers, the real risk may not be today's dye quotes but the reassessment of fabric procurement costs after the peak season in September-October.
Raw Material Side: Reductive Material Surges Nearly 300%, Supply Elasticity Nearly Zero
Disperse and reactive dyes are the two mainstream categories in the dyeing and printing industry, and reductive material (2-amino-4-acetaminoanisole) is an irreplaceable intermediate for producing black, blue, and violet disperse dyes. Industry public data shows that this raw material was quoted at about 25,000 yuan per ton at the end of 2025, surged to 70,000-100,000 yuan per ton by March 2026, a nearly 300% increase in a few months; by mid-year, it stabilized at a historical high of 100,000 yuan per ton. This means dye producers' raw material costs have quadrupled, and maintaining original prices would completely erode profits.
More critical is the rigid constraint on supply. Domestic compliant reductive material capacity is only 50,000-60,000 tons, highly concentrated in three enterprises: Zhejiang Longsheng, Runtu, and Ningxia Zhongsheng New Technology. The industry has minimal room for expansion, and supply elasticity is extremely weak. Once downstream demand picks up marginally, supply-demand imbalance will directly push up quotes. Meanwhile, H-acid, the core intermediate for reactive dyes, faces a similar dilemma. H-acid production involves sulfonation, nitration, and other highly polluting processes. Under environmental regulations, outdated capacity has been phased out, and current effective domestic capacity is less than 60,000 tons, with a supply gap of over 10% year-round. The simultaneous rise of reductive material and H-acid creates a dual cost squeeze, significantly reducing resistance to dye price increases.
Midstream Dyeing Mills: Weakened Bargaining Power in Off-Season, Squeeze Intensifies
The near-doubling of dye costs puts pressure first on dyeing factories. The textile market is still in a traditional off-season, with average operating rates at dyeing mills nationwide around 60%. Large orders are scarce, and most enterprises rely on sampling and small trial orders. Revenue is limited, and with soaring dye costs, profit margins are rapidly compressed.
A deeper change is the fundamental shift in the industry's supply-demand logic. In past peak seasons, dyeing mills leveraged capacity advantages to set prices, with rush fees and fabric premiums common. Now, conventional fabrics are increasingly commoditized, small orders are consolidated, and orders concentrate among top customers. Most dyeing mills have highly homogeneous processes and lack differentiated competitiveness. The market has gradually become a buyer's market, making it difficult to raise dyeing fees independently when dealing with major clients. Only a few high-end fabric-focused mills with stable quality control, relying on premium customer resources, can independently adjust processing fees.
Some dyeing mills have already issued notices to raise dyeing fees to offset cost losses. However, in the off-season, downstream demand is weak, and major clients have low acceptance of fee increases, making cost pass-through difficult. Most small and medium mills can only absorb the difference themselves, and prolonged losses are unsustainable.
Peak Season Approaching: Cost Pass-Through Will Shift from 'Blocked' to 'Released'
In the short term, downstream fabric and apparel enterprises have fewer orders and have not yet felt the pressure of higher dyeing fees. Most mills prioritize retaining core clients and have not yet implemented large-scale fee increases. But this low-price endurance model cannot last. In September-October, the textile industry will enter the traditional stocking season, with downstream apparel and foreign trade orders released intensively. The accumulated cost pressure from dyes and intermediates will transmit down the chain.
At that point, a broad increase in dyeing fees will become an industry-wide choice, and costs across the entire textile chain will rise simultaneously. From fabric mills, apparel brands, to end consumers, all will bear the cost of this round of dye price hikes. For buyers, the current off-season window for low-priced orders may be the key opportunity to lock in medium- and long-term fabric costs. For foreign trade enterprises, when signing orders with overseas clients, they need to assess the risk of dyeing fee fluctuations more prudently and consider adding price adjustment clauses in contracts when necessary.