In the second week of August, disperse dyes surged again across the board, with Disperse Black 300% approaching CNY 30,000/ton. This is the third wave of increases after two rounds in July. On the surface, it is an off-season counter-trend move, but underneath it is a concentrated release of intermediate supply bottlenecks—the price of the reductive agent has climbed from CNY 25,000/ton to CNY 100,000/ton in a few months, a nearly 300% jump that has completely reshaped the cost distribution logic of the printing and dyeing chain.
Cost Side: Intermediate Supply Rigidity is the Master Switch
The reductive agent (2-amino-4-acetamidoanisole) is an irreplaceable raw material for black, blue, and violet disperse dyes. Public industry data shows that its price was CNY 25,000/ton at the end of 2025, surged to CNY 70,000–100,000/ton by March 2026, and stabilized at a record high of CNY 100,000/ton after mid-year. A three-fold increase in a few months means that dye makers would see their profits evaporate if they kept prices unchanged, making hikes the only option.
More critical is the rigidity on the supply side. Domestic compliant capacity for the reductive agent is only 50,000–60,000 tons, highly concentrated among three companies: Zhejiang Longsheng, Runtu, and Ningxia Zhongsheng New Technology. The room for capacity expansion is extremely limited, and supply elasticity is weak—any slight recovery in downstream demand immediately reflects in quotes. This is the core support for the sustained rise in disperse dye prices.
Meanwhile, H acid, the key intermediate for reactive dyes, is also tight. H acid production involves sulfonation, nitration, and other highly polluting processes. Under environmental regulation, backward capacity has been phased out, leaving effective capacity below 60,000 tons, with a chronic supply gap of over 10%. The simultaneous rise of both reductive agent and H acid creates a dual cost squeeze, significantly reducing resistance to dye price increases.
Chain Transmission: Dyeing Mills' Bargaining Power Weakens in Off-Season, Full-Scale Hikes Possible in Peak Season
Cost pressure has already transmitted to the dyeing segment. The market is in a typical off-season, with national average mill utilization at only about 60%. Bulk orders are scarce, and most mills survive on sample and small-lot orders. Revenue is already limited, and with dye costs surging, profit margins are being squeezed rapidly.
The supply-demand logic has fundamentally changed. In past peak seasons, mills held pricing power through capacity advantages, with expedited fees and fabric premiums common. Now, conventional fabrics are increasingly commoditized, small scattered orders are consolidating, and order resources are concentrating toward top-tier customers. Most mills have homogeneous production processes and lack differentiated competitiveness, turning the market into a buyer's market where raising dyeing fees independently is difficult. Only a few high-end mills with stable quality and premium customer bases can raise processing fees on their own.
Some mills have already issued fee increase notices to offset cost losses. But in the off-season, downstream demand is weak, and major customers are resistant to higher dyeing fees, making downstream transmission difficult. Most small and mid-sized mills have to absorb the difference themselves, and prolonged losses are unsustainable.
Peak Season Expectations: Full Cost Transmission, End Consumers Ultimately Bear the Brunt
In the short term, downstream fabric and garment orders are limited, so the pressure of higher dyeing fees is not yet fully felt. Mills are prioritizing retention of core customers. But the low-price absorption model cannot last. In September–October, the traditional stocking season will bring a concentrated release of garment and foreign trade orders, and the accumulated cost pressure from dyes and intermediates will transmit down the chain tier by tier. A comprehensive increase in dyeing fees will become the industry norm, raising costs across the entire chain—from fabric mills and apparel brands to end consumers, all will become cost bearers of this dye price surge.