On August 8, disperse dye products saw another round of broad price increases, with Disperse Black 300% approaching RMB 30,000 per ton. Notably, this rise occurs during the traditional off-season for textiles, when downstream demand is weak, yet the dye sector is moving against the trend. The driving force is not demand but a dual squeeze from raw material costs and supply structure.
Cost Side: Intermediate Price Surge Reshapes Dye Pricing Mechanism
The direct catalyst is the soaring price of key intermediates. Reduced substance (2-amino-4-acetaminoanisole), essential for black, blue, and violet disperse dyes, jumped from RMB 25,000 per ton at the end of 2025 to RMB 70,000-100,000 by March 2026, an increase of nearly 300% within months, and has stabilized at a historical high of RMB 100,000 per ton since mid-year. Another key intermediate, H-acid, is also in tight supply due to environmental controls on sulfonation and nitration processes, with effective domestic capacity below 60,000 tons and a perennial supply gap exceeding 10%.
The simultaneous rise of these two intermediates creates a double cost squeeze on dye manufacturers. More critically, the supply elasticity of reduced substance is extremely low—domestic compliant capacity is only 50,000-60,000 tons, highly concentrated among three companies: Zhejiang Longsheng, Runtu, and Ningxia Zhongsheng New Technology. This means even a slight recovery in downstream demand can quickly unbalance supply and push prices up, leaving dye makers with little room to absorb costs, making price hikes the only way to sustain margins.
Industry Transmission: Dyeing Mills' Bargaining Power Weakens in Off-Season
Cost pressure is now transmitting to the dyeing and printing stage, but mills are in a passive position. The off-season is evident, with average operating rates at around 60% nationwide. Bulk orders are scarce, and most mills rely on sample-making and small trial orders. With limited revenue and nearly doubled dye costs, profit margins are rapidly compressing.
A deeper change is the fundamental shift in the industry's supply-demand logic. In previous peak seasons, mills leveraged capacity to dictate terms, charging rush fees and fabric premiums. Now, spot trading of conventional fabrics is increasing, small orders are consolidating, and orders are concentrating among top clients. Most mills have homogeneous processes and lack differentiation, turning the market into a buyer's market, making it hard to raise processing fees independently. Although some mills have issued price hike notices, downstream acceptance is low in the off-season, and cost transmission faces significant resistance. Most small and medium mills can only absorb the difference, making long-term losses unsustainable.
Peak Season Outlook: Full Cost Transmission Likely, End Consumers to Bear Burden
In the short term, downstream fabric and apparel companies have not yet felt the impact due to limited orders, and mills are prioritizing retaining core clients. However, the low-price burden model cannot last. As the traditional stocking season approaches in September-October, orders from apparel and foreign trade will release concentratedly, and the accumulated cost pressure from dyes and intermediates will transmit down the chain. Then, comprehensive dyeing fee increases will become common, raising costs across the entire textile chain—from fabric mills to brands and finally to consumers.
For buyers, it is crucial to closely monitor dye price trends and plan procurement rationally. For mills, accelerating differentiation and increasing high-end fabric proportions are essential to strengthen bargaining power.