In the first half of 2026, China's dyed and printed fabric exports presented a report card of "total growth, structural divergence": total exports reached $35.175 billion, a slight year-on-year increase of 1.99%, but the growth rate fell by 0.92 percentage points from the first quarter. More notably, the average export price of woven fabrics dropped by 1.08% year-on-year, while knitted fabrics saw a slight increase of 0.25%. The divergence between volume and price signals a clear divide in industrial upgrading paths.
Signals Behind the Data
Customs statistics show that in the first half of the year, woven printed and dyed fabric exports reached 20.811 billion meters, up 1.98% year-on-year, but the export value was only $19.156 billion, with growth narrowing to 0.62%, indicating a clear trend of volume growth with price decline. In contrast, knitted printed and dyed fabric exports reached 3.3759 million tons, up 3.43%, with export value of $16.019 billion, an increase of 3.69%, achieving growth in both volume and price. This divergence is not accidental—knitted fabrics have stronger demand in sportswear and leisure scenarios, and companies tend to add value through functional finishing, while woven fabrics face homogenized competition in conventional varieties, intensifying price wars.
For buyers, this means that the bargaining space for conventional woven fabrics is expanding, but they need to be wary of quality fluctuations behind low prices. For factories, the profit margins of knitted production lines are more resilient, but capacity expansion must match the sustainability of end demand.
Market Landscape: Southeast Asia Supports Half the Shipments
The concentration of export markets has further increased. In the first half of the year, exports to the top ten core markets totaled $19.141 billion, up 4.86% year-on-year, accounting for 54.42% of total exports. Among them, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Cambodia together accounted for 32.79%, up 1.81 percentage points from the first quarter. The expansion of Southeast Asian garment industries continues to drive upstream fabric demand. Cambodia saw the largest increase at 13.92%, while Vietnam grew only 0.52%, indicating different paces of order shifts across countries.
Free trade zone dividends have become a stabilizer. In the first half, exports to ASEAN reached $12.577 billion, up 3.06% year-on-year, and exports to RCEP member states reached $13.044 billion, up 2.74%, both higher than the overall growth rate. This means that regional supply chain coordination is effectively offsetting the weakness in European and American markets. For exporters, deeply cultivating RCEP markets is not only a risk diversification strategy but also a pragmatic approach to lock in orders through tariff preferences.
Pressure in H2: Three Overlapping Variables
Looking ahead to the second half, the export environment is far from optimistic. The IMF predicts global economic growth will slow to 3% in 2026, with trade volume growth falling to 3.5%, and overseas consumer demand recovering weakly. Meanwhile, new US Section 301 tariffs on China, the EU's removal of the de minimis exemption for small parcels, and the rise of new green trade barriers such as ESG continue to raise export operating costs. If geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to disrupt shipping, delivery reliability will also be tested.
These variables mean that companies relying on a single market or low-value-added products will be hit first, while those with green certifications and digital delivery capabilities may gain differentiated competitive advantages. The industry as a whole needs to be mentally prepared for a "growth gear shift," but there is no need for excessive pessimism—the fact that growth was maintained in the first half despite a high base last year proves the resilience of the industry's fundamentals.
Domestic Demand and Transformation: Keys to Navigating the Cycle
Facing external pressures, the domestic market has become an important hedge. In July, the State Council issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Expanding Consumption," with a series of policies gradually implemented, boosting potential in home textiles, sportswear, and industrial textiles. However, the structural contradiction of strong supply and weak demand has not been fundamentally resolved. Companies cannot simply shift export inventory to domestic sales; they need to develop differentiated products targeting domestic consumption upgrades.
The industry's breakthrough path is relatively clear: on one hand, increase R&D of high-value-added knitted, functional, and eco-friendly fabrics to escape low-price involution; on the other hand, accelerate green and digital transformation, improve low-carbon traceability systems, and meet international compliance requirements. These transformations are not optional but a survival threshold for the next three to five years.