Disperse dye prices rose across the board again on August 8, with Disperse Black 300% market quotes approaching the 30,000 RMB/ton mark. This is the third round of price hikes since July, driven not by demand recovery but by runaway upstream intermediate costs. The price of reducing agent (2-amino-4-acetamidoanisole) surged from 25,000 RMB/ton at end-2025 to a historical high of 100,000 RMB/ton by mid-2026, a nearly 300% increase in several months. H acid supply gap has exceeded 10% for years. This dual squeeze from raw materials is transmitting down the printing and dyeing chain, signaling a cost-driven price hike cycle.
Cost Side: Rigid Supply of Intermediates Supports Sustained Price Hikes
Reducing agent is an irreplaceable raw material for black, blue, and violet disperse dyes. Its price surge directly raises dye manufacturers' production costs. Domestic compliant reducing agent capacity is only 50,000-60,000 tons, highly concentrated among three companies: Zhejiang Longsheng, Runtu, and Ningxia Zhongsheng. Industry expansion space is minimal, and supply elasticity is weak. This means that once downstream demand picks up slightly, supply-demand imbalance will immediately push up quotes, providing strong cost support for sustained dye price increases.
H acid, a key intermediate for reactive dyes, also faces supply tightness. Its production involves sulfonation, nitration, and other highly polluting processes. Under environmental regulation, outdated capacity is being phased out, leaving effective capacity below 60,000 tons with a chronic supply gap exceeding 10%. If dye companies maintain original prices, their profits would be severely eroded, making price hikes an industry necessity. The simultaneous rise of these two key raw materials creates a dual cost squeeze, significantly reducing resistance to dye price increases.
Industry Impact: Dyeing Mills Lose Pricing Power, Cost Transmission Blocked
With dye costs nearly doubling, pressure directly hits printing and dyeing factories, but their current operating position is passive. August remains the off-season, with average nationwide dyeing mill operating rates around 60%, scarce bulk orders, and most enterprises handling only sampling and small trial orders, limiting revenue. More critically, the industry's supply-demand logic has fundamentally changed: previously, dyeing mills leveraged capacity advantages to dictate pricing during peak seasons; now, conventional fabrics are increasingly commoditized, small orders are consolidated, and orders concentrate among major clients. Most mills lack differentiation, making it difficult to raise processing fees independently.
Some mills have issued fee increase notices to offset costs, but off-season downstream demand is weak, and major clients show low acceptance of price hikes, making downward transmission difficult. Most small and medium mills must absorb the difference themselves, and prolonged losses are unsustainable. A few high-end fabric mills with stable quality and premium client bases can independently raise processing fees, further widening industry divergence.
Peak Season Expectations: Cost Pressure to Release in September-October
Short-term off-season demand is weak, fabric and apparel orders are limited, and downstream has not yet felt the pressure of rising dyeing fees. Most mills prioritize retaining core clients. However, the low-price bearing model cannot last. September-October will bring the traditional stocking season, with downstream apparel and foreign trade orders releasing intensively. The accumulated cost pressure from dyes and intermediates will transmit layer by layer from top to bottom. By then, comprehensive dyeing fee hikes will become an industry-wide choice, raising costs across the entire textile chain, from fabric mills to apparel brands and ultimately end consumers, all becoming cost bearers of this dye price surge.
For buyers, the current off-season is a window to lock in long-term orders and negotiate dyeing fees. For foreign trade enterprises, it is essential to assess the impact of fee hikes on quotations and include price adjustment clauses in contracts.