In the first half of 2026, the US textile and apparel import market showed a clear divergence: India's exports to the US plummeted by 23.3% year-on-year, from $5.35 billion to $4.10 billion, losing $1.25 billion in orders directly; while ASEAN achieved a positive growth of 4.5%. This contrast is not a simple market fluctuation but a microcosm of the global textile supply chain reshuffling under tariff pressure. India's market share in the US fell from 10.4% to 8.6%, with a decline rate more than three times the overall US import drop, exposing its heavy dependence on a single market.
Tariff Uncertainty as the Trigger for Order Loss
The textile and apparel industry has a strong lead-time cycle. Spring/summer styles entering the US market in the first half are typically ordered from the end of the previous year to the beginning of the current year. During this critical window, Indian suppliers faced tariff policy uncertainty, making US brands and buyers more cautious in order allocation, actively reducing India's share and shifting to ASEAN countries with more stable policies. This explains why India's decline far exceeded the overall market while ASEAN grew against the trend.
Tariffs are not just a cost issue but a core variable of supply chain predictability. When making decisions, buyers consider not only price but also policy stability, delivery reliability, and other comprehensive risks. India's repeated tariff fluctuations amplified export risks, prompting buyers to shift orders to Southeast Asian origins with clearer tariff environments. This risk-averse behavior is not a short-term tactic but a long-term consideration of supply chain resilience.
Supply Chain Inertia Hinders Quick Order Reversal
Trade chains exhibit significant inertia: once buyers complete supplier contracts, lock production schedules, and logistics plans, the entire supply chain arrangement becomes fixed. Even if tariff pressures ease later, allocated orders are unlikely to return to India quickly, with impacts potentially lasting several quarters. This means India loses not only current orders but also future capacity and channel advantages.
ASEAN's growth is not just about absorbing transferred orders but also about gradually building alternative capacity and stable supply capabilities. For India, regaining market share requires higher costs, not only improving tariff conditions but also rebuilding buyer trust and competing with ASEAN on price, lead time, and quality.
Implications for Global Textile Trade
These data offer an important warning for global textile practitioners: over-reliance on a single market or policy environment is highly vulnerable to volatility. US end-consumption, inventory cycles, and tariff policies remain core variables affecting order flows, but diversifying supply chains has become a key strategy to withstand external uncertainties.