In the first half of 2026, the US textile and apparel import market witnessed a significant structural shift: India's exports to the US fell 23.3% year-on-year, dropping from $5.35 billion to $4.10 billion, a direct loss of $1.25 billion in orders, while ASEAN bucked the trend with 4.5% growth. This contrasting data reflects a reshuffling of global textile supply chains under tariff policy turbulence, serving as a wake-up call for all suppliers overly reliant on a single market.
Signals Behind the Numbers
India's share of the US textile and apparel import market slipped from 10.4% to 8.6% year-on-year, a contraction of 1.8 percentage points, with a decline rate more than three times the overall US import drop. This indicates that India was not merely affected by the shrinking market but suffered disproportionate order losses. In contrast, ASEAN still managed to grow under the same conditions, suggesting a substantive shift in buyers' sourcing allocation.
From an industry perspective, orders for spring/summer goods exported in the first half are typically finalized in the late fourth quarter of the previous year. Therefore, H1 2026 data actually reflects tariff policy expectations from late 2025. Indian suppliers faced high tariff risk during that period, prompting US brands and buyers to reduce India's allocation and shift orders to ASEAN countries with more stable policy environments. This front-loaded decision-making means tariff uncertainty translates directly into order losses, rather than materializing only after actual tariff imposition.
The inertial effect of order shifts is notable. Once supply chains are adjusted, they exhibit strong inertia. Buyers lock in suppliers, sign contracts, and arrange production and logistics, making it difficult for orders to return quickly even if tariff risks ease. This suggests that India's lost market share is likely to be sustained by ASEAN for several quarters, rather than a simple seesaw effect.
Implications for China's Textile Industry
While China's textile sector does not hold an absolute cost advantage, it boasts a complete industrial chain and strong policy response capabilities. However, India's predicament serves as a warning: any strategy overly reliant on a single export market may face similar volatility. With US consumer demand, inventory cycles, and tariff policies remaining key variables, Chinese suppliers should draw three lessons:
- Accelerate market diversification to reduce dependence on any single country, actively exploring emerging markets like the Middle East and Latin America;
- Strengthen supply chain resilience through overseas capacity deployment or flexible production scheduling to enhance adaptability to policy changes;
- Establish tariff risk early-warning mechanisms, thoroughly assessing target market policy risks before order acceptance and reserving cost buffers.